TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,542,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,226,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,542,102 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes3c300,984$10,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,377.68339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes8c111,756$9,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,022.631466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes7c94,489$6,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.64912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc72…7193backed Yes16c91,395$14,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,570.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6853…5846backed Yes11c85,385$9,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,792.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes0c66,168$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.17430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes11c51,054$5,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,767.1235123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a20…4b67backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes6c50,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7c…46d9backed Yes7c44,588$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,176.52185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6faf…4581backed Yes2c40,404$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.5570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c39,900$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes9c38,673$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.69643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes14c38,000$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,319.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes8c33,712$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.656835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c30,409$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes11c29,773$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,398.82910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes9c28,002$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.2863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes4c26,373$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.42200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes5c20,379$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.37319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Yes21c20,018$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f0…6ff5backed Yes11c18,804$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes6c17,467$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.8211316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c16,318$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.346785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c15,631$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.253998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes6c14,891$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.471315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes9c14,088$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3008634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes3c13,377$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.311792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes12c13,055$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.758713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…50aebacked Yes6c12,662$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9d…94aabacked Yes10c12,398$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes5c11,934$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8211720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes8c11,879$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.44306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes14c11,484$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes3c11,305$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.26250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce47…4032backed Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes7c10,417$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes3c10,372$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.221672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes1c10,368$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.53240%0 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes0c10,355$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.35616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c10,203$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.921373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x298a…eda6backed Yes9c10,089$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e52…f6d5backed Yes6c10,072$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick22cpaid+275.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf499…b5d9backed No78c10,053$7,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…85aabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes6c9,532$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.131333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c8,995$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.042581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf77b…26d6backed Yes4c8,779$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed Yes9c8,654$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.874015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes11c8,634$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.1514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c8,481$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4262683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked Yes8c8,384$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes8c8,319$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.321422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes10c8,235$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8123215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…9ca9backed Yes4c7,355$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes8c6,969$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes4c6,616$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.11527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8b…1351backed Yes7c6,519$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8e3…ccd8backed Yes7c6,211$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7102…19aebacked Yes11c5,741$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,728$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.191490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes7c5,714$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83de…6cd2backed Yes8c5,700$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd64…3a57backed Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes13c5,491$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.222619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes11c5,431$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ae…103abacked Yes7c5,288$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes12c5,222$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6202231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No79c5,146$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.46955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c5,106$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.911015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd6…8733backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3e…8af2backed No79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508411.9%10 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+599.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,983$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.424163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14d9…407dbacked Yes4c4,908$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205200%0 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8402…bfa4backed Yes1c4,870$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.31875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+208.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes8c4,599$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes5c4,564$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c4,404$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.43590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ad…f56cbacked Yes2c4,388$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeea…a889backed Yes8c4,300$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes10c4,080$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1616729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c4,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd319…07edbacked Yes6c3,835$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c5…36d5backed Yes10c3,810$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.691030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes7c3,800$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…d300backed Yes12c3,577$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.082412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes4c3,414$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes6c3,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfede…76f7backed Yes11c3,300$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7af…cb65backed Yes9c3,212$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0276…19d8backed Yes9c3,132$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.871931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe53…7682backed Yes1c3,093$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed Yes5c3,050$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.924330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes11c3,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes11c2,964$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.512937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes9c2,885$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.78861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.