Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c8ff7ea00ca64e0a74a12eb8bf932243cd60924a5e22128b2f993478aacd3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 42c | 7,913$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.95 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…6febbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 27c | 4,691$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 70c | 3,327$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.33 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 63c | 3,220$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.58 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 57c | 3,140$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.44 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 61c | 2,542$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.66 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 67c | 2,465$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.95 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 60c | 2,309$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.53 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 50c | 2,219$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.37 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed No | 32c | 2,150$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 53c | 1,632$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.35 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,534$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 52c | 1,444$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.56 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked No | 35c | 1,418$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 12c | 1,405$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,346$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.1 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,223$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.89 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 61c | 1,060$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.49 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 59c | 1,038$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.84 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 54c | 903.47$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.12 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 900$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.61 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 25c | 889.89$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.14 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 22c | 828.54$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.56 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 54c | 799.81$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.14 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 16c | 747.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 38c | 725.52$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 45c | 712.35$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.47 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0248…b880backed Yes | 58c | 690.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 37c | 687.08$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.48 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 59c | 674.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 15c | 648.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 9c | 629.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 607.14$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.71 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 21c | 554.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked No | 37c | 530.2$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed No | 45c | 530$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 61c | 499.97$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 68c | 485.13$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.63 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 483.55$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 43c | 451.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 55c | 385.63$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 50c | 362.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 57c | 353.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 9c | 318.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 56c | 295.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 41c | 288$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 45c | 248.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 64c | 244.8$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 48c | 240.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 53c | 221.72$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…8c40backed Yes | 62c | 202.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 199.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 74c | 195$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 16c | 194.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 33c | 188.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 185.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 9c | 182.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…629fbacked Yes | 28c | 172.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 60c | 170.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 55c | 156.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 59c | 151.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed No | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…953cbacked No | 22c | 145.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 145$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 57c | 141$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 59c | 125.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…ee71backed Yes | 30c | 110.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 42c | 109.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…98fbbacked Yes | 45c | 108.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 20c | 106.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 30c | 100.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…6255backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 31c | 97.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…a61bbacked No | 46c | 87.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked No | 40c | 85.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?this page
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?Yes won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.