TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9fa3…4899

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$28.33
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.57
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.45
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.58
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$594.52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.55
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$67.13
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+79.4%+$152.83
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$39.26
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.32
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$51.42
All 8 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giantsbacked Hanwha Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$38.44
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landersbacked LG Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lionsbacked Samsung Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+94.3%+$18.87
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopardsbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+54%+$22.12
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$157
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+93.3%+$23.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$15.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$13.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.