Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x829496d500183b58db651a8754e434fb7f95ef15e5893917ce54c74ee817986a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 927.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 55c | 749.98$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 46c | 554.2$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.17 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 468.26$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 356.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 344$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 46c | 340.76$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 316.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 302.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 64c | 256.03$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 55c | 250.75$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 227$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 225.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 27c | 222.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 48c | 206.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4c89backed No | 56c | 177.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 170.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 37c | 168.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 167.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 165.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 54c | 162.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 37c | 160.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 33c | 155.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 154.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 64c | 151.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 149.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 149.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 148.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 142.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 42c | 141.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 45c | 141.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 140.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…c151backed Yes | 50c | 135.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 52c | 129.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 128.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 60c | 125.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 121.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 119.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 118.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 112.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 30c | 111.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…9059backed Yes | 50c | 110.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…7904backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 98.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 52c | 97.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 50c | 95.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 93.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 50c | 91.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 91.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 21c | 90.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 51c | 87.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 86.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 46c | 85.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 39c | 85.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 31c | 83.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 83.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 83.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 54c | 83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 65c | 76.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 75.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…4c3dbacked No | 59c | 71.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…4524backed Yes | 43c | 70.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 43c | 67.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 51c | 67.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 47c | 65.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…fc1dbacked Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 40c | 63.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 78c | 62.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 62.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 52c | 60.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 40c | 58.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 53.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 43c | 52.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 50.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…bbb7backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 49.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 39c | 47.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.