TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d66…4b25backed Yes0c5,024$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No69c1,098$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2939966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes1c1,022$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes37c621.69$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No54c472.1$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1712762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No62c396.94$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9913160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c378.03$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.131,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c356.63$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.091,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c335.91$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c335.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.722,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No63c297.15$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.018361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes30c294.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5410843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c289.37$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.083,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed No66c279.06$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.157871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes40c264.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No60c243.91$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No66c239.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c230.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes45c205.91$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.663935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes36c204.86$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.993836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked Yes5c202.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes15c190.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.619425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes46c177.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.217140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57c2…792dbacked Yes51c176.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes46c173.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes50c164.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.731,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes50c161.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.754533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes26c159.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9359021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c150.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes30c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c149.77$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27a…06f8backed Yes35c149.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.681931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c144.63$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.852,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes33c144.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No62c143.75$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.073961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c141.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.62544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No69c139.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6739158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c138.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c129.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes42c129$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No77c128.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7781165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c123.17$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.572,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes24c122.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes42c119.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No65c119.01$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2735854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c09…3f91backed Yes40c111.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f10…9059backed Yes38c110.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes31c106$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1934846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes25c102.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No64c102.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4643859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes39c102$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.461,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c101.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No63c101.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4138258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No55c100.66$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c99.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes40c99.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c98.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.255,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No61c98.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes65c97.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.861,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes38c89.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes41c85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.858551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed No64c82.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.861866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes41c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.412941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No73c79.39$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes32c78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11850%9 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+48.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c76.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.212,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes38c75.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.794037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No63c75.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.827762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No61c75.16$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes36c73.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes46c73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.354228.6%12 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bf…7b37backed Yes42c72.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed No60c72.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes44c72.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.98536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes37c72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7616626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes50c69.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2166…d717backed No58c68.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No62c68.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes43c66.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9418255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes37c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No57c64.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes39c61.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed No66c61.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7815236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb19…08febacked Yes73c61.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.561070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes39c59.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.255635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No51c58.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.524768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c57.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.723,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes37c56.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.