Wallet 0x45e6…8fca
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x45e606f7849330adad37875f835fbdd1b7868fca
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 36
- What they are worth now
- $343
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $321
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 36, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?backed No | 144.93shares | 69c | 69c | $99 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?backed No | 15.32shares | 94c | 100c | $15 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?backed No | 19.61shares | 51c | 75c | $15 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?backed No | 15.23shares | 88c | 94c | $14 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay?backed No | 15.34shares | 88c | 93c | $14 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?backed No | 15.27shares | 91c | 91c | $14 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?backed No | 15.42shares | 83c | 82c | $13 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?backed No | 15.78shares | 44c | 75c | $12 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?backed No | 15.45shares | 67c | 72c | $11 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?backed Yes | 15.42shares | 63c | 72c | $11 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on July 15?backed Yes · resolved | 250shares | 1c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on July 11?backed Yes · resolved | 85.71shares | 5c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28?backed Yes · resolved | 43.18shares | 6c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0xefc4…2c8fbacked outcome 0 | 41.67shares | 6c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 6?backed Yes · resolved | 40shares | 4c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 4 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 39
- Categories scored
- 5
- Categories below 50
- 2
Best Category: Dota2, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).
Best Category Dota2 at 63 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weather — the 22 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dota2 — the 13 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.