AI · resolved market
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1016138c2a7bca03712d612e44b08962e013e9c05741ae8c578243fc47cd7f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 68c | 4,956$3,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…024cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 58c | 1,290$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.94 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 61c | 1,189$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…6c0fbacked No | 29c | 1,186$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 76c | 1,157$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 960.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…f67dbacked Yes | 2c | 653.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 619.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 8c | 612.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 610$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.64 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 525$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 16c | 506.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.66 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 26c | 442.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 40c | 270.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…d320backed Yes | 60c | 245.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 7c | 228.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 216.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…fa05backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 44c | 191.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 37c | 180$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 180$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…1cafbacked Yes | 60c | 180$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 58c | 171.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…7e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 165.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 33c | 160.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 141.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 128.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…b1c3backed No | 43c | 116.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 39c | 108.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 106.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 61c | 93.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 25c | 91.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed Yes | 36c | 89.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 70c | 89.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 88.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 22c | 63.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 79c | 53.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…fce3backed No | 36c | 43.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?this page
- Grok 4.4 released by August 31?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 10?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 17?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 31?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by June 15?No won
- Grok 4.4 released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.