AI · resolved market
Grok 4.4 released by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41097ca06d865259d0c2605149f91a1b772c749e871d0975c4d8745a8710812e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 70c | 2,158$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 66c | 1,452$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 1,197$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 33c | 790.68$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 530.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.53 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 56c | 496.89$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.68 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 29c | 459.92$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 35c | 351.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 55c | 347.23$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 32c | 324.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 63c | 313.02$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 28c | 305.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.05 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 16c | 246.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 56c | 228.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 40c | 222.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 206.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 47c | 156.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 46c | 154.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…be19backed No | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 139.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 125.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed Yes | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…1cafbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 30c | 91.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 86.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 71c | 67.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 21c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37f…47ddbacked Yes | 30c | 53.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 42c | 48.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…fff2backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 67c | 42.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 42c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 38.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 51c | 36.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed No | 33c | 30.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…a1c6backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 56c | 29.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 72c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 53c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.4 released by July 31?this page
- Grok 4.4 released by August 31?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 10?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 17?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 8?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by June 15?No won
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?No won
- Grok 4.4 released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.