AI · resolved market
Grok 4.4 released by July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c20176ba8a7d841deb2d39d0887b81cc9458513726a55eaa3c0c282f0e57c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed No | 0c | 11,784$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 0c | 11,043$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed No | 0c | 10,553$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 2c | 10,495$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…72cebacked No | 0c | 9,443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 1c | 7,891$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 0c | 7,255$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…6208backed No | 0c | 6,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 5,595$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…3a36backed No | 3c | 2,287$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 1c | 1,640$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 9c | 1,392$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…44f1backed Yes | 78c | 1,208$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 38c | 899.18$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…9d0dbacked No | 2c | 873.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 78c | 859.32$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 34c | 487.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.26 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 48c | 415.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed No | 5c | 415.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…928fbacked No | 15c | 409.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 9c | 341.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…e10fbacked Yes | 55c | 250$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 7c | 228$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…a821backed No | 18c | 227.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 61c | 167$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 29c | 151.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 142.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 102.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…67bfbacked No | 34c | 84.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f15…7afabacked Yes | 16c | 77.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +510.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed No | 33c | 75.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 78c | 46.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 67c | 41.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e7…2fd0backed Yes | 78c | 38.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868a…61a6backed No | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…e77ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d55…f488backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…afedbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 4.4 released by July 8?this page
- Grok 4.4 released by August 31?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 10?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 17?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by July 31?Yes won
- Grok 4.4 released by June 15?No won
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?No won
- Grok 4.4 released by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.