Movies · resolved market
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e20c18fc781c8bb0b0c7e204587a11bc575e37f3bff938b723e792fe3de444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 15c | 13,356$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.38 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 8c | 10,662$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.16 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 6c | 5,419$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.01 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 19c | 4,744$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.96 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 17c | 2,231$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 14c | 1,725$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.84 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 13c | 1,588$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 10c | 1,209$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…3b94backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 19c | 789.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 7c | 751.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 667$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 38c | 657.37$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 80c | 627.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 42c | 613.72$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.86 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 12c | 560.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 17c | 508.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 30c | 506.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 7c | 474.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 6c | 420.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 385.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 35c | 368.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 13c | 349.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 11c | 341.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…9b8dbacked No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…d958backed No | 9c | 268.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 80c | 242.02$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 64c | 236.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 185.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…2784backed Yes | 78c | 178.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…2553backed Yes | 59c | 169.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 16c | 159.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 72c | 139.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 64c | 138.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…bcecbacked Yes | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 23c | 130.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 66c | 99.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked No | 22c | 89.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…f795backed No | 12c | 81.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 81.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…0bf7backed No | 56c | 80.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 34c | 75.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 18c | 68.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…17d7backed No | 20c | 65.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 60.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e625backed Yes | 80c | 60.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 55.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 51.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 50.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 52c | 48.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 50c | 42.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 30c | 42.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…bf94backed No | 34c | 32.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 40c | 25.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…42a2backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Unchosen" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.