TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,830 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes7c66,414$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.221035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes13c9,181$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.1411855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No79c5,857$4,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.972330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c02…e658backed Yes56c4,219$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3801145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No53c4,032$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.555633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes19c2,828$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.013724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked No62c2,774$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.894969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes15c2,696$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.32729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes22c2,337$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.843145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes15c2,288$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1127536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c2,048$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.8947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes6c1,899$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.488442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c1,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No57c1,655$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.552913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes69c1,613$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.2114421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes2c1,450$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0819337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No71c1,316$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.773647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No54c1,291$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.512429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c1,193$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.78942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes51c1,129$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.8914339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes11c1,124$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.610723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c970.19$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.74167.5%31 W · 385 L-25.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes14c933.25$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.354158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes15c910.01$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No47c821.24$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes10c790.39$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.881435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No77c761.09$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2215047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes20c739.25$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.454146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8900…4d52backed Yes8c733.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes15c714$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.431216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes64c676.84$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.757948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c653.02$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.487538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes50c640.68$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.344729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a41…419cbacked Yes67c593.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c585$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.288741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6abc…f38ebacked No35c574.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No78c560.47$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.641833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes64c548.03$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.9336945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes75c531.19$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes59c514.59$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Yes26c505.82$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.541618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8514337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes15c462.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.053560%21 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed Yes22c462.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.611428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…e223backed Yes13c445.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No79c427.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.823243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa2…3801backed Yes24c421.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1f…a246backed Yes36c416.37$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c399.85$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.515848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes16c387.51$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c354.98$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.084736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked No37c349.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.491414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No74c347.58$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9116519.4%32 W · 133 L-21.3wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1ea1…47e4backed Yes9c345.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No59c332.37$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.664126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No46c314.33$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.797020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c59…8363backed Yes64c301.4$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c300.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.013042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c299.08$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.15843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes27c276.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.822850%14 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Yes50c256.93$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid+7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06b6…eba6backed Yes76c254.12$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes14c251.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.22722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked No38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e5…0059backed Yes65c244.59$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.131090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23be…a0b3backed Yes69c234.79$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes11c221$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No77c219.74$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1719818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x022b…35aebacked Yes53c209.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c205.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.512842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes8c204$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes10c203.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.192268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x789e…3bb1backed Yes75c203.38$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.191926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12446038.9%179 W · 281 L-31.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes14c199.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.621963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbb…4124backed Yes10c193.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No32c188.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7428826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c167.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2373135.6%260 W · 471 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa659…02e0backed Yes24c167.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f6…e5d4backed Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…c330backed Yes60c166.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8784backed Yes60c166.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes33c160$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No43c143.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.433050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c143.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No43c140$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.146647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c78…593dbacked Yes73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No45c133.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0122019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…8bfdbacked No77c133.29$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ad…1538backed No23c132.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+340.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No37c126$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3810730.8%33 W · 74 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes17c120.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4813422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9652…d0a0backed Yes53c119.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No28c119.01$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.243638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb392…d481backed Yes54c118.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes14c115.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No41c110$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.96448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes65c101.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.