AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb833e3aba09dc39808c66bbac2ddea4345d0d44b6d9595f35b549f51aaf40a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,353$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 16c | 8,802$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.09 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…5e03backed Yes | 6c | 6,546$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…ea43backed Yes | 1c | 6,306$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,898$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 29c | 2,490$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.55 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 2c | 1,886$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,859$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,401$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,364$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 78c | 1,286$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,203$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…6f45backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 740.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 29c | 672.24$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes | 2c | 645.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 66c | 545.28$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 24c | 511.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…58bcbacked Yes | 8c | 421.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 380.59$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 77c | 371.57$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 365.17$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 28c | 351.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 30c | 279.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…a0b3backed Yes | 23c | 253.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Yes | 5c | 216.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 215.23$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 183.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 29c | 150.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 143.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…8b51backed Yes | 15c | 133.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 35c | 126.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 31c | 117.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…49d4backed Yes | 46c | 97.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…3d9abacked Yes | 30c | 94.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 85.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 70c | 82.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 81.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 69.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 21c | 64.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 53.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 42.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…284dbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…287dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes won
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.