AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ce12ba86eb907e759c4d0804c5069b4735b90d85658f6f35c4aaa412430bd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 58c | 2,035$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.13 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 1,350$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,026$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 894$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 52c | 865.35$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.61 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed Yes | 34c | 700.37$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…1f40backed Yes | 10c | 469$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 52c | 403.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 52c | 394.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 362.85$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 31c | 325.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 7c | 285.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 283.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 57c | 270$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 37c | 230.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 12c | 224.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 154$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 33c | 150.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 77c | 115.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 111.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 91.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…fb7cbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 51c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…d816backed Yes | 42c | 71.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 64.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 41c | 61.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…ece3backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 29c | 52.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…82e8backed No | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 45.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 44.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…e758backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 57c | 29.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…eca2backed No | 60c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…1765backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…576cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…10fdbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a73…9541backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…94b6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…f982backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 15.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?this page
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?No won
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.