TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,138,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,000,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,138,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,079 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c37,309$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.752560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68be…fb2fbacked Yes0c32,697$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb911…8bb6backed Yes21c31,109$6,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,577.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…a981backed Yes39c30,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7207…e423backed Yes30c26,793$8,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c26,664$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66220%0 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes40c21,936$8,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,745.337611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c21,550$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.55811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes2c20,342$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+368.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c19,773$7,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,476.4145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes1c17,255$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c15,895$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2921713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c12,964$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No57c12,827$7,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,454.66850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No67c12,728$8,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,232.583411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1bf…f74bbacked No71c12,300$8,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No55c12,233$6,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,556.17850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c10,611$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.04634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes21c10,475$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.6914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed No57c10,216$5,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,385.511735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1588…e152backed Yes36c10,113$3,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5847…5420backed No57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b9…0371backed Yes55c9,682$5,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,311.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No67c8,778$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.713638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5afe…af69backed No68c8,200$5,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c7,827$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.951,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x282a…f2c5backed Yes1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x317e…73dcbacked Yes41c6,679$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dde…d725backed Yes6c6,310$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes0c6,162$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes34c6,146$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.713525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c5,534$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes2c5,086$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes35c5,055$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1b…7460backed Yes15c5,042$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c4,810$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No64c4,800$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.936462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked No77c4,773$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c4,670$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.611491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2056…0591backed Yes58c4,668$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No74c4,651$3,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed No56c4,549$2,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.711770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+118.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed No57c4,500$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes40c4,324$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No66c4,314$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.042524%6 W · 19 L-8.3wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-67%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes34c4,252$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.421442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…7d1cbacked Yes1c4,247$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7cb…d447backed Yes44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2202…8787backed No68c3,993$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes21c3,888$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c3,811$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b5…6e4bbacked Yes4c3,707$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d30…c338backed Yes1c3,498$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44bb…c186backed Yes43c3,450$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.4160%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c3,316$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.432792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,263$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.33042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7c…5017backed Yes67c3,047$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes1c2,677$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes10c2,598$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.184157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f75…af7ebacked No58c2,580$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes38c2,495$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.541323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes1c2,483$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…9df0backed No62c2,459$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No32c2,457$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.087222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed Yes33c2,455$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No39c2,379$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+191%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0343…f3bcbacked No78c2,364$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5e…de25backed Yes43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No55c2,156$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.763839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x649e…efd9backed Yes1c2,155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f4b…f9bfbacked No47c2,125$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No69c2,111$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.541181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+124.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x484b…7a7abacked Yes48c2,082$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed No67c2,013$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.262254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbafc…78d0backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256e…3e44backed No47c2,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.992516%4 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f21…b935backed No64c1,987$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.471258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,982$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes23c1,966$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.425046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa65…8e78backed Yes1c1,930$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No61c1,909$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.5316418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x61f6…ed9ebacked Yes31c1,800$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5175…45a5backed Yes1c1,731$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,678$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b4…946dbacked Yes1c1,641$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes3c1,634$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid+1,150%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No57c1,633$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.683813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes16c1,611$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed No62c1,589$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa703…6a73backed No64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f50…e621backed Yes2c1,553$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ec…1ee8backed No64c1,553$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes1c1,484$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.