AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb9e922b7dbbb4aa5253d98203d5593a93b59599447aff02354ecafbe19b916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,138,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,000,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,138,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,079 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 37,309$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.75 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68be…fb2fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,697$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 21c | 31,109$6,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,577.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…a981backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,599.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…e423backed Yes | 30c | 26,793$8,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 26,664$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 40c | 21,936$8,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,745.33 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 21,550$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…6ec5backed Yes | 2c | 20,342$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +368.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 19,773$7,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,476.41 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes | 1c | 17,255$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,895$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 12,964$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 57c | 12,827$7,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,454.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 67c | 12,728$8,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,232.58 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…f74bbacked No | 71c | 12,300$8,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,561 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 55c | 12,233$6,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,556.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 10,611$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.04 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 10,475$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.69 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed No | 57c | 10,216$5,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,385.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…e152backed Yes | 36c | 10,113$3,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5847…5420backed No | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 55c | 9,682$5,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 67c | 8,778$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.71 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afe…af69backed No | 68c | 8,200$5,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,595.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,827$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…f2c5backed Yes | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…73dcbacked Yes | 41c | 6,679$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 6c | 6,310$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 0c | 6,162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 6,146$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 5,534$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.55 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 2c | 5,086$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 35c | 5,055$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…7460backed Yes | 15c | 5,042$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 4,810$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 4,800$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.93 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked No | 77c | 4,773$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,670$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2056…0591backed Yes | 58c | 4,668$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 74c | 4,651$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 56c | 4,549$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed No | 57c | 4,500$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 40c | 4,324$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 66c | 4,314$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 34c | 4,252$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…7d1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,247$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2202…8787backed No | 68c | 3,993$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 21c | 3,888$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,811$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…6e4bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,707$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c338backed Yes | 1c | 3,498$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…c186backed Yes | 43c | 3,450$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,316$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,263$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7c…5017backed Yes | 67c | 3,047$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,677$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,598$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked No | 58c | 2,580$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 38c | 2,495$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 2,483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…9df0backed No | 62c | 2,459$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 32c | 2,457$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.08 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…6d60backed Yes | 33c | 2,455$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 39c | 2,379$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +191%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…f3bcbacked No | 78c | 2,364$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…de25backed Yes | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 55c | 2,156$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.76 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…efd9backed Yes | 1c | 2,155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked No | 47c | 2,125$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 69c | 2,111$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…7a7abacked Yes | 48c | 2,082$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 67c | 2,013$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…78d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…3e44backed No | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed No | 64c | 1,987$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,982$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,966$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.42 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…8e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 1,909$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.53 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…ed9ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,800$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…45a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,678$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…946dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,641$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,634$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 57c | 1,633$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.68 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 16c | 1,611$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed No | 62c | 1,589$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…e621backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…1ee8backed No | 64c | 1,553$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0f…601abacked Yes | 1c | 1,484$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.