Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58643cb596484dc2a9e405724d070aa2c36528757e5200eb852fbdbffe322957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 14,155$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9f…29ebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 42c | 2,538$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.88 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b01…4947backed No | 72c | 1,503$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 37c | 1,444$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.47 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 1,296$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 54c | 1,115$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 69c | 879$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.97 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 856.44$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 28c | 820.23$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 765.92$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 36c | 662.89$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 649.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 66c | 625.76$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.1 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 64c | 610.86$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.37 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 68c | 566.66$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.69 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 53c | 536.63$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.64 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 493.04$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 35c | 491.03$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 45c | 453.83$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.58 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…9eebbacked Yes | 46c | 434.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 32c | 429.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 419.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 410.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 390.38$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 332.52$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 29c | 327.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 327.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed No | 68c | 323.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 77c | 322.59$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 311.88$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 33c | 301.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…a780backed Yes | 40c | 298.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 285$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 284.48$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…df82backed Yes | 36c | 276.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 33c | 250.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 238.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 235.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 34c | 235.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 226.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 226.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 63c | 225.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 206.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 204.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 31c | 193.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…0958backed No | 57c | 189.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 180$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 34c | 177.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 61c | 176.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 21c | 176$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 23c | 174.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 30c | 167.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 62c | 158.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…f2b4backed No | 64c | 155.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed Yes | 39c | 154.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 62c | 154.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 153.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4962…f1b2backed No | 66c | 151.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 67c | 148.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 54c | 147.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 34c | 146.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 141.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 57c | 140.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 138$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 137.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…c825backed Yes | 37c | 134.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 134.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes | 50c | 122.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…4681backed No | 67c | 119.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 118.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 116.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…b293backed Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 44c | 114.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 40c | 114.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…9b55backed Yes | 23c | 113.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 78c | 113.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 113.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 67c | 111.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73e0backed Yes | 55c | 110.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 70c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…fd87backed No | 46c | 109.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 106.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 68c | 105.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 50c | 105.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 104.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 44c | 103.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed No | 77c | 102.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 53c | 101.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 39c | 96.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 94.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 93.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 89.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…85afbacked No | 72c | 88.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.