TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c14,155$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.083,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc9f…29ebbacked Yes1c3,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes42c2,538$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.8834624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b01…4947backed No72c1,503$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes37c1,444$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.4736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c1,296$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.854,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2695…60f8backed No54c1,115$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.841050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No69c879$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.978239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes37c856.44$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.085,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes28c820.23$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No56c765.92$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.34,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes36c662.89$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.142733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes30c649.63$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.132,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16a…dd6dbacked No66c625.76$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.14264.3%27 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes64c610.86$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.375139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No68c566.66$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes53c536.63$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.6416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c493.04$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes35c491.03$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.713951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes45c453.83$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9a…9eebbacked Yes46c434.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+119.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes32c429.84$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes7c419.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes39c410.48$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.221,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c390.38$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.821,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c332.52$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.262,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes29c327.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c327.91$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.483,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb5…72d7backed No68c323.12$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No77c322.59$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c311.88$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed Yes33c301.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a67…a780backed Yes40c298.78$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c285$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.494,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No60c284.48$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.981,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb855…df82backed Yes36c276.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked Yes33c250.31$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.968940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes50c238.06$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.891,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c235.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.581,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes34c235.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes37c226.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.51,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No45c226.12$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.081,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No63c225.62$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c206.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c204.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes31c193.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.697464.9%48 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aca…0958backed No57c189.58$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes32c180$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes34c177.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.321926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes61c176.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.151,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes21c176$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes23c174.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked Yes30c167.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes62c158.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7811019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…f2b4backed No64c155.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f5…47c7backed Yes39c154.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No62c154.44$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3910617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c153.87$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.344,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4962…f1b2backed No66c151.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No67c148.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No54c147.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes34c146.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c141.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.372,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No57c140.68$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9416724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No52c138$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No47c137.47$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8618052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0a…c825backed Yes37c134.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes14c134.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1431219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes50c122.27$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.961136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+101.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21bc…4681backed No67c119.3$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes31c118.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.121,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes36c116.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3335742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76bb…b293backed Yes40c115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes44c114.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee8…cce9backed Yes40c114.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a7…9b55backed Yes23c113.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No78c113.53$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5212853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c113.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes67c111.04$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9618038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed Yes55c110.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.321136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No70c110$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.524066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa275…fd87backed No46c109.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c106.37$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No68c105.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.387550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes50c105.09$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.567335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes28c104.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4466735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No44c103.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.499058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c4…e168backed No77c102.37$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.042864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes53c101.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.116432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes39c96.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No64c94.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No73c93.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No65c89.01$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1967336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fb6…85afbacked No72c88.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.681770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.