TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca65…f06fbacked Yes0c6,049$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes3c2,605$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5961365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes1c1,567$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4652533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes51c1,276$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65034624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes1c1,190$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c1,131$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.963,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked No38c999.96$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes63c899.99$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1229953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes67c608.3$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41025362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes56c599$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.484047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes39c420.85$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54c6…35cbbacked Yes60c372.88$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.44366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes45c341.07$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.535139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c341$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.222,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c272.53$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.555,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked Yes21c266.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28a1…69a1backed No75c266.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.665040%20 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes51c252.8$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c251.89$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.344,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes70c245.65$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.952572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc722…87f5backed Yes70c245.63$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes58c244.96$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.342326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c240.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.924,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7d99…62a8backed No75c239.21$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.083053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes16c225.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6211019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes19c214.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8230428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes29c204.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.83,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4c…830abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa275…fd87backed Yes22c183.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes10c175.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2518038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c166$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes30c164.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed No72c161.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked No60c158.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked Yes25c155.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.987550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed No70c151.21$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.294447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes28c148.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1135742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef5e…b385backed No55c147.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.93161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes28c137.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes12c137.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed92…0a62backed No76c131.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.44666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes32c130.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes21c130.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4340741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3acf…9d09backed Yes31c128.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes17c122.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2433232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No69c119.77$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.752155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No63c113.95$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes23c111.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.631,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c105.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.652,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c104.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6c…8cc1backed No78c101.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.33560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c100.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2417310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2271031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…6417backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes19c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.57237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eed…c2a5backed No68c99.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes25c99.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.876431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No50c98.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.491,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No65c95.82$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.312,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c94.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No58c94.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.581,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes22c92.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2568645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes17c89.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.320025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes14c89.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes31c85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.954447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes36c84.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.261,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes65c84.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0424466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes25c84.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.225959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes25c83.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb563…26bfbacked Yes32c81.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes23c80.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2325536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c76.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c73.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.561,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c73.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.263,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x831b…dcf3backed Yes25c72.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c71.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes36c69.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes20c67.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.514540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c67.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ed…e634backed Yes31c67.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.842630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes69c66.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.923759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b47…4932backed No29c65.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedee…f2b4backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.111459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No79c62.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e3…6761backed Yes43c58.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes23c57.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2812829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes42c56.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8812955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6618…6881backed Yes73c56.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.212138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c16…04bfbacked Yes21c56.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c53.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes23c53.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.159439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes27c52.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.927335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c51.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.