TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,637 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes76c2,682$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.1425362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c1,210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c1,125$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.774,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No1c1,067$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes44c825.38$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.44047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c812.42$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.475,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes45c591.9$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.524,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes60c541.8$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3624466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No23c470.12$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes31c440.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.1142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d99…62a8backed No76c406.52$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.883053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes72c393.03$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.997237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No35c385.33$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c369.8$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.363,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.762,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c331$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.815,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes23c275.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.7330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No27c272.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No73c272.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes80c257.55$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No68c251.34$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.081,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c245.16$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c242.83$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No25c237.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.951,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No46c230.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.711,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes66c213.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.024447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No64c159.14$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c157.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No60c153.26$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes53c153$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.042564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes24c147.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.237534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c145$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.444,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes30c139.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.455841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No76c135.78$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes52c131.51$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.931,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No38c130.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes27c130$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c128.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No50c127.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes38c126.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes23c125.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.527421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes38c125$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.977335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes45c123.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1435742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes76c121.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.323759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c120.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No62c118.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c112.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c105.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.791,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No49c104.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.033,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f5…47c7backed No24c103.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c4…e168backed No76c103.76$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.782864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c101.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes25c100.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.596431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7730813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes26c99.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9936648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes32c97.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No53c96.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.759058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3acf…9d09backed Yes27c93.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes25c89.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2217831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No12c88.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No70c85.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c83.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes27c83.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6412735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes65c83.05$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4514645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No31c81.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.432,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19f…3eabbacked Yes20c80$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes30c79.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes23c75.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0814635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c74.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes27c74.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.485633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes21c72.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8819430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No73c72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5651553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No70c71.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c71.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa223…0894backed No75c69.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.393565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e1…7858backed Yes30c67.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.62837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c67.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.743,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x918d…adaabacked No74c67.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No32c64.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes20c63.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.039548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1297…1fb0backed Yes64c63.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.965158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No44c63.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.676660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes28c61.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5912955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes28c60.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4e…146fbacked No22c60.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes42c59.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No56c57.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1161760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes57c57.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.431,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes30c55.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.818451.2%43 W · 41 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c54.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.311,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes25c50.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes42c50.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8741258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1c…e021backed Yes30c49.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+67.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes28c49.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.631,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.