TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,817,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,898,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,817,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 724 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes4c162,239$6,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,308.3614039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes4c116,573$5,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,103.4513246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes1c80,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes5c61,942$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,862.0215234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c55,884$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.1848630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes10c52,459$5,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,175.8537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes3c43,622$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.8528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c41,457$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.421521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes5c33,929$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.0128427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes4c33,018$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.214619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes3c31,950$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.6929027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes2c27,906$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.3115023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes5c21,486$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.7930635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes2c18,130$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.5922333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes6c16,845$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0902825%7 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+406.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes9c16,832$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.0935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes9c16,677$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.6115230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c16,638$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.142742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes4c15,200$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.794748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3ee…7030backed Yes4c14,987$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes4c14,402$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.489139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes7c14,223$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.248530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes6c14,004$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.2516638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c13,570$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.33717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes2c13,184$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0318738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a54…4a03backed Yes5c12,222$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes5c11,603$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003813.2%5 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes2c11,387$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8712037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes0c11,157$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes8c10,455$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.8217737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes3c10,120$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.854617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+50.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13013138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c9,869$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.53103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes2c9,384$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.894812.5%6 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes7c9,106$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.386330.2%19 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes3c8,807$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c8,502$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7124712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…30fbbacked Yes3c8,377$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes4c8,376$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.0914821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c8,343$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1419119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes7c8,021$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.6914129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes2c7,734$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.451146.1%7 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x654a…cc32backed Yes14c7,663$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.683158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed Yes8c7,656$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.3311454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes7c7,275$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.733138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c7,198$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.394769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c7,134$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.151,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0591…cc74backed Yes1c7,014$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.951323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c6,906$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.364625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c6,845$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.934195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes7c6,699$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.021039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f3…4edebacked Yes3c6,534$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes6c6,487$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c6,274$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2729129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c5,976$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.76588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes3c5,634$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.653040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c5,489$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.673588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c0…01edbacked Yes3c5,475$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73aa…dd36backed Yes3c5,411$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.25650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5526…2336backed Yes3c5,166$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c5,081$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.765071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c5,064$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes6c5,061$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1219930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes13c5,035$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8513746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72de…a5edbacked Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes2c4,601$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.57229.2%21 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes5c4,384$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2212740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf345…cc9dbacked Yes4c4,353$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…3783backed Yes3c4,335$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.91837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498a…d5b0backed Yes3c4,328$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb09f…0629backed Yes3c4,170$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes5c4,153$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8260%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b4…e1e3backed Yes5c4,141$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes6c4,080$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5310945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes14c3,902$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.6822529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb1…34b9backed Yes5c3,873$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb1…3db9backed Yes3c3,866$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.851030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c3,848$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.922036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes1c3,729$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.67030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed Yes4c3,655$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.72244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2a…1a47backed Yes6c3,503$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c08…b9cdbacked Yes3c3,460$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes5c3,260$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1210913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes8c3,258$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7516131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2af2…d918backed Yes3c3,238$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.141010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes7c3,230$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2727233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x965d…32b3backed Yes5c3,073$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…9ff4backed Yes3c3,056$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.88850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb81b…9af5backed Yes3c3,044$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.413360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes4c3,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0316131.7%51 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes9c2,969$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8836634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes9c2,952$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1415434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd0e…b1e3backed Yes4c2,928$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba0…89b2backed Yes1c2,919$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes2c2,600$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610747.7%51 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes10c2,551$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.359244.6%41 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…05ecbacked Yes9c2,398$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.171650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc4…24e8backed Yes3c2,376$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c2,288$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.344224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.