TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,480,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,359,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,480,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 818 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No7c87,340$5,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,901.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No3c46,517$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.5205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c36,357$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.19370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes66c35,391$23,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,175.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes61c35,036$21,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,749.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb911…8bb6backed Yes65c31,976$20,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,104.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d64…2830backed No0c28,749$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c27,650$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.06170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…8819backed No0c22,436$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes62c22,171$13,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,469.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No2c20,001$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cb…df2cbacked No0c19,301$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6f…1dfebacked No5c16,136$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc911…72a5backed No1c15,476$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No0c14,937$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed No43c14,088$6,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,060.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c12,279$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.41277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa66…6b1bbacked No0c10,693$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17eb…b068backed No4c10,574$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b1…e816backed No3c10,186$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8339…54f5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fb…77c2backed No0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709e…1a3abacked No5c9,830$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e4…c647backed No5c8,483$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed No29c8,222$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab3…b9bcbacked No24c7,808$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…d0e3backed No1c7,690$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9e…b900backed Yes57c7,534$4,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No1c7,140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No4c6,533$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+214.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No3c5,643$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.52345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…1222backed Yes64c5,498$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3358…fc36backed No28c5,382$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe499…e36bbacked No1c5,301$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed No3c5,246$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No1c5,186$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+202.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bb7…6f64backed No1c4,917$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…804abacked No7c4,821$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5361…a510backed No1c4,666$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes67c4,628$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No16c4,612$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No10c4,419$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1d…33aabacked No49c4,414$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked No26c4,411$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c4,405$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.12563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No2c4,300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.590%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aba…9e7cbacked No28c4,248$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81bc…17dabacked Yes64c4,222$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…0cafbacked No3c4,163$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a96…8f44backed No27c4,008$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c3,702$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c3,577$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Yes74c3,566$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.281050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75e…1116backed No1c3,505$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No19c3,482$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc41…98ebbacked Yes48c3,479$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b0…2bb4backed No0c3,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6423…29cdbacked No0c3,350$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…05b4backed Yes77c3,256$2,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked No1c3,254$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked No32c3,122$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes56c3,122$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.491250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3069…83cdbacked Yes61c3,120$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No11c3,113$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde66…0f3ebacked No0c3,068$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f77…32cdbacked No2c3,057$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a0…b278backed No1c3,041$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9c…0f82backed No1c3,040$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes56c3,031$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7736…73e5backed No0c2,938$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77b…82edbacked No7c2,873$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27be…f0f6backed No1c2,872$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No12c2,865$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.811811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No49c2,772$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed No19c2,756$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.95166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc88…c4e5backed No5c2,752$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes74c2,665$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…95c1backed No0c2,626$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No12c2,600$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.191020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ff…c381backed No4c2,585$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5f…fb5cbacked No1c2,532$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe417…9a9fbacked No3c2,496$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bbc…90d5backed No0c2,484$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a4…70e2backed No5c2,481$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed No4c2,461$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes63c2,400$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No12c2,382$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No5c2,369$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.57128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No39c2,358$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes54c2,357$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.211586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+70%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No34c2,278$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes60c2,271$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes55c2,266$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x291e…3fb0backed No4c2,261$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No28c2,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked No4c2,243$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.641833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No17c2,243$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbb…41aebacked No5c2,237$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.