China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2333934993e8cdd616f29c7747a620745a817ae0ff0babce9be881f400068cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,480,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,359,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,480,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 818 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 7c | 87,340$5,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,901.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 3c | 46,517$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 36,357$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 66c | 35,391$23,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,175.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 61c | 35,036$21,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,749.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Yes | 65c | 31,976$20,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,104.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…2830backed No | 0c | 28,749$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 27,650$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.06 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…8819backed No | 0c | 22,436$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 62c | 22,171$13,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,469.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 2c | 20,001$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…df2cbacked No | 0c | 19,301$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked No | 5c | 16,136$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…72a5backed No | 1c | 15,476$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 0c | 14,937$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed No | 43c | 14,088$6,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,060.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 12,279$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.4 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa66…6b1bbacked No | 0c | 10,693$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…b068backed No | 4c | 10,574$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…e816backed No | 3c | 10,186$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…54f5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…77c2backed No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…1a3abacked No | 5c | 9,830$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…c647backed No | 5c | 8,483$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed No | 29c | 8,222$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…b9bcbacked No | 24c | 7,808$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…d0e3backed No | 1c | 7,690$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…b900backed Yes | 57c | 7,534$4,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 1c | 7,140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 6,533$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 5,643$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…1222backed Yes | 64c | 5,498$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…fc36backed No | 28c | 5,382$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe499…e36bbacked No | 1c | 5,301$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed No | 3c | 5,246$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 1c | 5,186$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6f64backed No | 1c | 4,917$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…804abacked No | 7c | 4,821$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5361…a510backed No | 1c | 4,666$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 67c | 4,628$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 4,612$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 10c | 4,419$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…33aabacked No | 49c | 4,414$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 26c | 4,411$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 4,405$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 2c | 4,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aba…9e7cbacked No | 28c | 4,248$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bc…17dabacked Yes | 64c | 4,222$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…0cafbacked No | 3c | 4,163$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…8f44backed No | 27c | 4,008$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 3,702$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 3,577$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed Yes | 74c | 3,566$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…1116backed No | 1c | 3,505$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 3,482$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…98ebbacked Yes | 48c | 3,479$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…2bb4backed No | 0c | 3,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…29cdbacked No | 0c | 3,350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Yes | 77c | 3,256$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked No | 1c | 3,254$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked No | 32c | 3,122$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 56c | 3,122$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…83cdbacked Yes | 61c | 3,120$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 11c | 3,113$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…0f3ebacked No | 0c | 3,068$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…32cdbacked No | 2c | 3,057$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…b278backed No | 1c | 3,041$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…0f82backed No | 1c | 3,040$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 56c | 3,031$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…73e5backed No | 0c | 2,938$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…82edbacked No | 7c | 2,873$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27be…f0f6backed No | 1c | 2,872$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 12c | 2,865$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 49c | 2,772$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 19c | 2,756$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…c4e5backed No | 5c | 2,752$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes | 74c | 2,665$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…95c1backed No | 0c | 2,626$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 12c | 2,600$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…c381backed No | 4c | 2,585$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…fb5cbacked No | 1c | 2,532$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe417…9a9fbacked No | 3c | 2,496$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…90d5backed No | 0c | 2,484$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…70e2backed No | 5c | 2,481$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed No | 4c | 2,461$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes | 63c | 2,400$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 2,382$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 5c | 2,369$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 39c | 2,358$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 54c | 2,357$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.21 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed No | 34c | 2,278$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 60c | 2,271$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,266$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…3fb0backed No | 4c | 2,261$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 28c | 2,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 4c | 2,243$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 17c | 2,243$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…41aebacked No | 5c | 2,237$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on or prior to May 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.