TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$313,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,440 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c21,872$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.43370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f8…2515backed Yes0c20,261$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c18,278$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c12,550$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes4c10,874$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes1c9,783$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes4c9,364$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c7,836$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes0c6,082$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c5,344$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes0c4,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c3,971$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.38345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes0c3,900$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick22cpaid+108.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes3c3,742$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b9…8f98backed Yes9c3,072$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes10c3,021$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1344…9735backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes5c2,685$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.47137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c2,671$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.27464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,652$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.741277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…d665backed Yes4c2,575$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes12c2,522$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x222f…8271backed Yes3c2,483$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c2,417$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.48563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes9c2,173$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-87.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9771…96e7backed Yes7c2,038$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee0…b04cbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No76c1,800$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…23babacked Yes9c1,796$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b0…b8c9backed Yes1c1,576$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes19c1,429$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes7c1,420$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.172810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf04…11e3backed Yes1c1,313$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada7…963bbacked Yes6c1,289$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,151$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f30…8547backed Yes4c1,122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2863…91fbbacked Yes9c1,063$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,019$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.09110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes6c1,015$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f47…d0b0backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c982.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes1c937.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes5c833.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes12c831.63$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6d…a4b7backed Yes4c763.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes7c679.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes4c571.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c541.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17260%0 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed Yes6c521.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.621414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes10c480.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbb…4124backed Yes4c467.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…95ffbacked Yes12c434.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7995…55d6backed Yes7c430.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes7c388.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f80…be79backed Yes7c349.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes6c347.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d3…4d87backed Yes9c325.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd774…afc4backed Yes6c324.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes4c319.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x594f…9cb8backed Yes8c315.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c313.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.492433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabd1…870ebacked Yes7c313.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes18c311.17$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.01100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No80c248.44$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c239.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…f2d7backed Yes24c238.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…90dcbacked Yes22c238$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Yes23c220$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes21c201.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.531464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No80c197.03$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…61d1backed Yes8c189.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes18c178$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…844abacked Yes8c153.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c148.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.216933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes8c129.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303a…4b47backed Yes25c122.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87f…7822backed Yes11c99.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b3…b227backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes18c79.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.194723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a88…c9ecbacked Yes16c76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No77c72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb4…9688backed Yes24c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec4…9258backed Yes24c53.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes19c53.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f5c…b449backed No75c52.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No75c47.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54bf…d4febacked Yes24c45.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de9…db17backed Yes26c42.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…325dbacked No75c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed No74c37.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d07…3343backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.