China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b16ed4e71372994995236af0560fab25ae3bbdf58d907b24afc7afaab907ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 21,872$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed Yes | 0c | 20,261$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 18,278$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 4c | 10,874$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 1c | 9,783$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 9,364$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,836$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,082$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,344$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 0c | 4,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 3,971$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 0c | 3,900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,742$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b9…8f98backed Yes | 9c | 3,072$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,021$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…9735backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,685$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 2,671$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,652$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…d665backed Yes | 4c | 2,575$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,522$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222f…8271backed Yes | 3c | 2,483$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,417$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 2,173$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…96e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,038$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…b04cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 76c | 1,800$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…23babacked Yes | 9c | 1,796$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…b8c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,576$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 1,429$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,420$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,313$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada7…963bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,289$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,151$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8547backed Yes | 4c | 1,122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…91fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,063$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 6c | 1,015$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 982.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 1c | 937.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 5c | 833.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 12c | 831.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…a4b7backed Yes | 4c | 763.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 679.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 4c | 571.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 541.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed Yes | 6c | 521.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 10c | 480.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…4124backed Yes | 4c | 467.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…95ffbacked Yes | 12c | 434.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7995…55d6backed Yes | 7c | 430.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 388.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 7c | 349.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 6c | 347.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…4d87backed Yes | 9c | 325.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 324.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes | 4c | 319.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…9cb8backed Yes | 8c | 315.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 313.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 7c | 313.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 311.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 80c | 248.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 239.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…f2d7backed Yes | 24c | 238.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…90dcbacked Yes | 22c | 238$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 21c | 201.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 80c | 197.03$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…61d1backed Yes | 8c | 189.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 18c | 178$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…844abacked Yes | 8c | 153.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 148.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…4b47backed Yes | 25c | 122.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 11c | 99.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…b227backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 79.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…c9ecbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb4…9688backed Yes | 24c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 24c | 53.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 19c | 53.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…b449backed No | 75c | 52.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 75c | 47.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…d4febacked Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…db17backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed No | 74c | 37.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…3343backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on or prior to May 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.