China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd581a9b4993ead31f709a73a058d6689a5a2dcb7b4eb34e53e07d122f23cbd83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $702,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $435,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 61,662$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.68 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 29,955$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 21,225$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed Yes | 7c | 11,395$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 1c | 11,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 10,383$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…6c30backed Yes | 1c | 10,323$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…7e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,208$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed Yes | 1c | 9,808$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada7…963bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,399$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 8,011$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 6,851$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 6,776$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 6,359$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…3e42backed Yes | 1c | 6,276$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,056$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,789$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…97a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,419$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…34e5backed Yes | 1c | 4,299$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 3c | 4,208$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…4198backed Yes | 1c | 4,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…2fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,771$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe417…9a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,769$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…f37ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,618$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 10c | 3,211$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,016$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,957$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,887$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…7cc1backed Yes | 3c | 2,820$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,682$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,637$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,608$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,572$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…0f67backed Yes | 1c | 2,556$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 2,515$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…a7c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8c53backed Yes | 3c | 2,468$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 2c | 2,391$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,249$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…d452backed Yes | 1c | 2,232$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 2c | 2,206$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…bb38backed Yes | 1c | 2,137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes | 3c | 2,052$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…fc36backed Yes | 3c | 2,029$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 5c | 2,002$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…4e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…d4febacked Yes | 3c | 1,915$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…5cd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,888$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…ce2bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,849$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…91fbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315e…9b06backed Yes | 3c | 1,786$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…7f8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,738$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…a6bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,694$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,668$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…3664backed Yes | 2c | 1,615$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,577$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…5787backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…3e1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,556$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…336dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,474$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7a…0ec7backed Yes | 2c | 1,459$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…dd3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,406$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…5c09backed Yes | 4c | 1,404$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…f4e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…23ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,323$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 2c | 1,292$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…baa7backed Yes | 3c | 1,290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f0…7ad0backed Yes | 2c | 1,283$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…3ff4backed Yes | 1c | 1,263$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…844abacked Yes | 6c | 1,184$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf345…cc9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…7c22backed Yes | 3c | 1,143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,131$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fd…ebe6backed Yes | 1c | 1,124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…65ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…6342backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…d61ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,096$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…1640backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16df…1b0bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…e277backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…d736backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…d6e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…8082backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bf…33e3backed Yes | 2c | 996$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…8dbbbacked Yes | 2c | 991.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes | 2c | 983.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed Yes | 4c | 979.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c6…e468backed Yes | 1c | 977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…78d1backed Yes | 3c | 926.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 2c | 859.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…904ebacked Yes | 3c | 856.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c6…680fbacked Yes | 3c | 804.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…e4e1backed Yes | 2c | 787.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 8, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit China on or prior to May 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.