TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c15,275$65 inLost-$65.32170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c12,500$12 inLost-$12.550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c6,264$58 inLost-$57.68370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffa…1d59backed Yes2c6,032$100 inLost-$99.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes0c5,287$15 inLost-$15166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c4,957$25 inLost-$24.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c4,065$37 inLost-$36.66205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,497$27 inLost-$26.54260%0 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc7…e29cbacked Yes1c2,873$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,825$15 inLost-$15563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes1c2,008$28 inLost-$28.3970%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c1,888$13 inLost-$12.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e39…8c53backed Yes2c1,670$26 inLost-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bf…d4febacked Yes1c1,374$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…844abacked Yes2c1,229$21 inLost-$2160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f30…8547backed Yes1c1,130$13 inLost-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x121d…832abacked Yes3c634.76$19 inLost-$19.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes2c628.82$11 inLost-$11.27137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb14c…9687backed Yes2c567.17$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c6c…806bbacked No70c40$28 inWon+$12.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13df…4f22backed Yes34c30$10 inLost-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.