TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$608,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked Yes2c90,754$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.45205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c25,446$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.04370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes2c22,783$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…c4febacked Yes25c22,041$5,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,472.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes20c14,966$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.071330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x300e…3006backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes6c10,000$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5821020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a90…03b5backed Yes3c9,309$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c8,315$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.121277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b14…3e42backed Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bee…12c6backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed Yes3c7,065$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5667…bb43backed Yes19c6,818$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+103%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes1c6,622$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick14cpaid+231.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x944f…28dabacked Yes2c6,377$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes0c6,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+211%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d56…a205backed Yes1c6,077$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes1c6,050$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Yes39c5,474$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.751050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes1c5,443$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4471…a8cabacked Yes6c5,424$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c5,096$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.491811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes18c5,070$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.7270%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes3c5,049$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd0…8387backed Yes1c4,850$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes2c4,507$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes1c4,403$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c4,401$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes1c4,400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc76c…d01dbacked Yes2c4,384$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c4,333$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.93345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0605…1593backed Yes4c3,808$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594f…e2f8backed Yes24c3,797$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes34c3,750$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No74c3,533$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.38119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-87.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f44…170dbacked Yes3c3,504$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3d…7f8dbacked Yes2c3,292$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa465…6b06backed Yes3c3,197$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,195$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.12563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe417…9a9fbacked Yes2c3,004$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes9c2,858$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.46120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c2,751$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.28464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ad…89e8backed Yes4c2,728$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5062…2c3dbacked Yes30c2,722$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick53cpaid-81%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa712…ebb9backed Yes1c2,690$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9c…0f82backed Yes2c2,633$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee9…974fbacked Yes1c2,556$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes5c2,553$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c2,552$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Yes3c2,500$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…6ae0backed Yes2c2,477$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes23c2,468$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes1c2,456$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No78c2,440$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No72c2,437$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes6c2,316$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.16170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No74c2,275$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes2c2,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes2c2,194$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes23c2,151$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b5…c48dbacked Yes1c2,105$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes24c2,082$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Yes4c2,034$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes29c2,010$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad56…396cbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes22c1,896$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.25580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick32cpaid+155.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7736…73e5backed Yes1c1,840$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb161…9132backed Yes16c1,803$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes22c1,720$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes20c1,663$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.071637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes10c1,588$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.25568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes2c1,538$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…396dbacked Yes2c1,510$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes2c1,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes18c1,486$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick26cpaid+80.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes27c1,470$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.11225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c6…680fbacked Yes25c1,404$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907f…f855backed Yes2c1,403$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Yes26c1,392$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6740%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes20c1,391$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.451216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked Yes4c1,373$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6a…97bebacked Yes2c1,354$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes16c1,320$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes4c1,285$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…82edbacked Yes4c1,270$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes1c1,241$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bf…d4febacked Yes8c1,225$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,187$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d82…dea5backed Yes2c1,185$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5e…de25backed Yes3c1,173$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13bb…d552backed Yes26c1,171$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,140$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.36110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…8c53backed Yes30c1,129$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes2c1,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+506.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,098$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…844abacked Yes6c1,077$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked Yes19c1,073$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No72c1,060$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes30c1,050$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.