TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Spirit, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$908,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,057,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $908,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 435 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b1d…76a0backed Spirit56c57,547$32,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,462.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spirit63c51,185$32,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,940.9425355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MOUZ37c38,888$14,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,388.4533343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ34c36,559$12,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,556.861,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked MOUZ37c25,813$9,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,550.8514145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Spirit65c17,326$11,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,990.0540264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed MOUZ37c16,356$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0005240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88b…4613backed MOUZ38c15,000$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,650742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked MOUZ36c13,686$4,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.4816946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…6ca7backed Spirit65c13,608$8,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,763.451233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Spirit62c13,444$8,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,108.5723355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ29c13,377$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,874.5287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ38c12,449$4,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,677.1875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Spirit64c12,000$7,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32010749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1d…3721backed MOUZ36c11,080$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked MOUZ35c10,000$3,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,486.5275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Spirit64c9,060$5,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,261.5825655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked MOUZ46c8,875$4,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.3121251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ30c8,573$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.731,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeac…32bfbacked MOUZ36c8,045$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit63c8,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.9946149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6e…b5bcbacked Spirit65c7,662$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.352744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked MOUZ35c7,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6256454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed Spirit61c7,400$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.925563.6%35 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Spirit49c6,597$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,380.621,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked Spirit66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0404768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Spirit63c4,635$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.31,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Spirit68c4,510$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.2944957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Spirit59c4,333$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.8713357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Spirit70c4,328$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.521250%6 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked MOUZ57c4,228$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ50c3,721$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spirit66c3,420$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.062,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed MOUZ33c3,380$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.942441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked MOUZ31c3,120$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.25052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4272…10c2backed MOUZ37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1101662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MOUZ45c2,970$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.6237157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed Spirit54c2,900$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed MOUZ36c2,753$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.5610449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked Spirit53c2,733$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.6911947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ32c2,728$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.991,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Spirit64c2,700$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97260853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked MOUZ37c2,676$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.1746165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Spirit62c2,625$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.332,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ49c2,500$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23512571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Spirit65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87516633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ32c2,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9921424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit76c2,435$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.891,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Spirit58c2,410$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.98652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Spirit65c2,380$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.3645646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Spirit63c2,380$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.48752.9%46 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ33c2,333$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.785,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed MOUZ26c2,276$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ43c2,235$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.052,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb454…a98cbacked Spirit64c2,234$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.195536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Spirit63c2,231$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.3235054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked Spirit67c2,181$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.86854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed MOUZ29c2,150$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.9415244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked MOUZ35c2,150$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.485534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit65c2,041$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ34c2,019$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.625,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ37c1,967$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.0161034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed MOUZ37c1,950$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7167943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed MOUZ36c1,898$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.287234.7%25 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Spirit58c1,895$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.6715150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Spirit72c1,852$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.993,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Spirit66c1,830$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.1817250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed MOUZ39c1,810$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d71…a961backed MOUZ34c1,800$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+113.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed MOUZ54c1,667$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9913253.8%71 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked MOUZ25c1,565$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.4822241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Spirit69c1,555$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.558947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed MOUZ31c1,500$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47028843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ35c1,500$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52014847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked MOUZ36c1,500$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.9919741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed Spirit63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.993754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Spirit64c1,496$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.5412055%66 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed MOUZ47c1,479$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.6769445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed MOUZ36c1,450$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52255845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Spirit67c1,445$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ28c1,362$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.788746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4adf…d623backed MOUZ37c1,240$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.966173.8%45 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Spirit65c1,220$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42725248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Spirit64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Spirit63c1,200$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.9936645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed Spirit64c1,171$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.43935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed MOUZ45c1,168$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.6411643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed MOUZ54c1,094$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.481566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed MOUZ46c1,094$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked Spirit63c1,077$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.482166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…fc26backed MOUZ2c1,058$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Spirit64c1,042$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4127452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed Spirit67c1,042$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.799241.3%38 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked Spirit65c1,038$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed MOUZ56c1,002$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.189063.3%57 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MOUZ35c1,000$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.032,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Spirit64c1,000$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.458758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Spirit60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40035847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed MOUZ35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35085851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed MOUZ43c975.11$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.717759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.