TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Spirit, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$722,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$846,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $722,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bcb…398abacked Spirit65c62,770$40,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,727.581553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MOUZ38c43,780$16,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,047.733343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spirit21c42,617$9,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,117.381,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Spirit62c30,065$18,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,631.653666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MOUZ42c25,899$10,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,933.6141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed MOUZ36c24,805$8,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,875.27454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked MOUZ35c17,014$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,059.218556.5%48 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Spirit37c16,559$6,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,048.222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked MOUZ38c15,480$5,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,597.5214145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc88b…4613backed MOUZ39c12,379$4,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,530.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Spirit62c12,000$7,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.9310749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed MOUZ64c10,023$6,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,612.5940264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.975450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Spirit23c9,975$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.7416633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed Spirit66c9,469$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.811266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+49.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Spirit61c8,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88046149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Spirit62c7,820$4,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,823.4317062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked MOUZ50c7,100$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.5716946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked Spirit50c6,632$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.444647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Spirit44c6,588$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.853426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed MOUZ53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.992050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…3721backed MOUZ38c5,928$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…4281backed Spirit51c5,500$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8051050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed MOUZ35c5,489$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,554.552441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…6ca7backed Spirit63c5,457$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ41c5,415$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1801,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Spirit62c5,000$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.1592456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ33c5,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,35036645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit63c4,908$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,091.975,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2d…9af1backed Spirit47c4,395$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.6550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x969a…59ddbacked Spirit51c4,250$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.581764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Spirit47c4,043$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90020448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed Spirit46c3,800$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.9911149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ34c3,593$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.2587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Spirit36c3,570$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.2415749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed Spirit48c3,206$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.755446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Spirit67c3,200$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14417737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked Spirit66c3,150$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07910644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed MOUZ74c3,124$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.392,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Spirit49c3,122$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.771,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed MOUZ76c3,077$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.061250%6 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ36c2,946$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.5197040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Spirit51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed MOUZ37c2,730$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.8660853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed MOUZ70c2,688$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Spirit64c2,618$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.0235054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ35c2,591$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.392,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed Spirit62c2,500$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5502532%8 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked MOUZ74c2,495$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.985052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed MOUZ41c2,442$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.924845.8%22 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ35c2,280$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.8414847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Spirit52c2,269$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19019346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MOUZ37c2,208$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.0461034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Spirit66c2,200$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.9915244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ33c2,124$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.395,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Spirit62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24032346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ53c1,937$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.681,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Spirit63c1,910$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.6164852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ55c1,889$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.791,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9015…281fbacked Spirit67c1,847$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.316854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ66c1,717$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.751,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Spirit56c1,669$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.7366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ34c1,548$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.4785446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Spirit43c1,481$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6421,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899c…81b0backed Spirit52c1,467$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ54c1,451$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.4240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Spirit47c1,391$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.7488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed Spirit52c1,346$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Spirit31c1,303$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.183,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Spirit30c1,259$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.755738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed MOUZ61c1,212$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.341,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked Spirit63c1,203$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.912166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed MOUZ36c1,114$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.9613840.6%56 W · 82 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8a…2d3cbacked Spirit25c1,100$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.762941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+84.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Spirit43c1,038$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44514544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked MOUZ69c1,015$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7646165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ38c1,015$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.232042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Spirit63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Spirit55c999.99$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54516542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked MOUZ51c999.99$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4851050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Spirit65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Spirit51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Spirit40c968.45$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.41633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Spirit46c966$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.4521143.1%91 W · 120 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00b…8897backed Spirit52c953.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed MOUZ72c936$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.088652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed MOUZ70c887.16$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.4912937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc86f…e603backed Spirit35c877$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.812842.9%12 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Spirit36c862.83$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.5269445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit63c854.05$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Spirit42c834.45$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.6852834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Spirit52c825$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42913550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Spirit63c800.19$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.1234156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed MOUZ75c795$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.753935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed MOUZ65c793.18$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.12,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ38c782.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.7324038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df3…1411backed Spirit63c767.35$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.434751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Spirit63c762.92$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.552,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Spirit66c752$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3414247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.