CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0fab42a9a4b8462ce2dd139c8528300685184a2c1e4845882585c832f30ac19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb496…1f45backed MOUZ | 50c | 4,306$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit | 50c | 3,438$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.78 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…2687backed MOUZ | 49c | 2,111$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a6ecbacked Spirit | 50c | 1,024$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.35 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Spirit | 45c | 1,004$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.38 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked MOUZ | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Spirit | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.45 | 755 | 45.6%344 W · 411 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ | 55c | 917.52$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.93 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Spirit | 51c | 512.55$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Spirit | 51c | 368.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Spirit | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed Spirit | 46c | 278.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed MOUZ | 54c | 273.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 2,030 | 53.7%1,091 W · 939 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed MOUZ | 55c | 250.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 476 | 55%262 W · 214 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…7691backed Spirit | 51c | 235$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Spirit | 51c | 227.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Spirit | 45c | 220.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked MOUZ | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Spirit | 50c | 147.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Spirit | 46c | 73.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Spirit | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Spirit | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Spirit | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Spirit | 51c | 46.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…0c2abacked Spirit | 47c | 40.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Spirit | 49c | 34.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 726 | 45.6%331 W · 395 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…bd22backed Spirit | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 3 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 4 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)MOUZ won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)MOUZ won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)MOUZ won
- Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs MOUZ (+2.5)MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.