TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$331,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,714 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes52c48,301$24,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,997.573026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes71c29,447$20,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,929.115150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabca…8cd7backed Yes47c22,100$10,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,387.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No39c17,762$6,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,844.5814729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes46c16,769$7,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,680.2934333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No65c16,608$10,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,857.328042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No32c12,009$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,207.131586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No46c11,188$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,084.7610245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No43c10,663$4,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,029.6510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No30c7,791$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,453.692646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No38c6,398$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.626035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No44c6,245$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.8713625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077e…06d2backed No48c5,090$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No48c5,000$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5805547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No32c5,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No32c4,985$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.65251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c4,800$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976.9931534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No54c4,580$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.796750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No47c4,154$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2004723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes55c4,021$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.985129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7201833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes71c4,000$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8401330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes67c3,983$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.024443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No38c3,711$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.98149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Yes66c3,700$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4591241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes53c3,104$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes47c3,067$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.3115445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes55c2,748$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.3324433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddae…3242backed Yes5c2,689$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No50c2,667$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.9815431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked No52c2,644$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.211050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No34c2,447$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.624242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes48c2,419$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.241050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes56c2,400$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.7521161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbebe…72e1backed Yes70c2,400$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No44c2,022$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.31936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9efd…ad00backed No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked No50c1,928$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No46c1,659$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8906336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No43c1,653$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.89475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No49c1,603$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.9310739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes63c1,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f7d…aa8dbacked No48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d66…928fbacked No50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes51c1,355$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c1,341$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.1917140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed No55c1,314$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.923243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes11c1,300$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No44c1,277$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.7133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No36c1,236$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe391…eea1backed Yes32c1,233$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacad…3480backed Yes72c1,227$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes34c1,177$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.848332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked No34c1,165$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes23c1,136$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.21741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6b…6e11backed No53c1,107$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes60c1,100$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6628550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c1,096$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.9910947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes15c1,064$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.955111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f71…4e83backed Yes12c1,048$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.86333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No41c1,047$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.512218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No45c1,042$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.4518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e2…6610backed Yes49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5a…8008backed Yes68c1,013$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked No47c1,010$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No44c1,000$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.72050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked No51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes53c1,000$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed No52c994.25$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.241376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa4…cd4ebacked Yes8c915.6$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No41c900$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.189326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bed…7574backed Yes69c899.43$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes18c868.65$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3318237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes33c846$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.422339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0778…73d1backed No79c837.23$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.623030%9 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes46c823.54$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a9…516abacked No49c806$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No33c800.03$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.044729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb1…acc2backed Yes23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes65c742.53$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4913647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa696…1d24backed Yes47c732.98$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.17825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88e…67f2backed No36c717.25$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked No50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c670.7$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.633421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes12c667$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No39c634.5$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.044936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes50c613$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5519631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No43c612$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.783751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No32c605.28$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.9616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed Yes65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901040%4 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No47c600$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3202055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No41c579.95$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.171650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No35c569.54$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.93941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked No53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3e…ff11backed Yes2c563.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No48c557$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.538541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd08…ee64backed No49c555$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.05933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.