TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe391…eea1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
231
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT17647.2%83 W · 93 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 176 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$177.27
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovicbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.84
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.38
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borgesbacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Wimbledon ATP: Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.58
Wimbledon WTA: Janice Tjen vs Daria Kasatkinabacked Janice Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Leolia Jeanjeanbacked Leolia Jeanjean · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.05
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anna Blinkovabacked Yulia Starodubtseva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergsbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Alexander Bublikbacked Thanasi Kokkinakis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon WTA: Lois Boisson vs Elena Rybakinabacked Elena Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.19
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnleybacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Wimbledon ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Gabriel Diallobacked Benjamin Bonzi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatekbacked Iga Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$7.36
Wimbledon WTA: Kayla Day vs Madison Keysbacked Madison Keys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$3.4
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondarbacked Solana Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.44
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Taggerbacked Lilli Tagger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon WTA: Mimi Xu vs Daria Kasatkinabacked Daria Kasatkina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvetbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.14
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkelbacked Hanne Vandewinkel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhangbacked Shuai Zhang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.35
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fabian Marozsan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuelbacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignonbacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 176 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$299
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+658.6%+$7,320.66
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,850Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,850
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,901Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,901.06
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$5,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,102.2
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$170.53
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.8
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$193.75
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$188.1
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+300%+$900
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$177.78
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 22 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-80.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$2.62
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+67.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+175.1%+$1,050.82
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+552.2%+$508
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+89.2%+$89.18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+126.8%+$126.82
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$999
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$181.54
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$888.89
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+224.2%+$323.76
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 4 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.