Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51687c10e4c64a7d9c6aaac28d4c56f6e3e8bd8dcdb567d6711880765a52e446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 12c | 670.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 460.2$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 77c | 355.3$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 282.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 204.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 200.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 13c | 189.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 172.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 144.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 13c | 139.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 133.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 132.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 131.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 128.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 125.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 11c | 125.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 120.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 101.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked No | 19c | 97.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 40c | 85.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 76.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 71.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 18c | 70.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 69.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 67.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 23c | 65.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…403cbacked No | 56c | 63.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 37c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 56.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 56.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 55.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 52.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 52.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 50.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 59c | 47.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 44c | 46.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 46.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 46.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 41.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 47c | 40.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 40.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 39.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 37.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 35.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 35.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 33.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 32.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 31.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 55c | 31.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 53c | 31.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 30.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 30.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 27.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 25.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 24.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 47c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 22.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 79c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…eea1backed Yes | 79c | 12.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.