Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef81963d41ea52123392403575dc75010388340729134fd9b6ed175f84f88b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,380$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 76c | 572.49$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 419.2$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 378.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 343.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 69c | 213.8$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 186.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 163.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 159.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 150.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 135.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 25c | 120.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 118.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 114.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 105.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 103.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 97.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 28c | 96.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 87.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 83.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 78.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 78.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 35c | 74.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 29c | 69.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 68.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 25c | 64.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 60.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 24c | 52.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 51.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 47.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 45.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 23c | 44.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 42.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 32c | 41.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3c34backed Yes | 28c | 40.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 40.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 40.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 39.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 37.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 61c | 35.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 44c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 32.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 67c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 30.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 29.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 25.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 22.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 22.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked No | 67c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 76c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.