Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8034fabaaf99375e73ce073f16acbedf86e52a186944b0faec2873b661f228aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 754.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 664.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 441.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 253.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 237.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 12c | 211.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 207.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 188.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 119.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 15c | 119.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 19c | 113.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 107.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 105.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 89.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 85.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 82.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 75.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 67.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 67.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 24c | 61.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 60.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 58.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 23c | 49.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 48.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 48.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 21c | 47.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 43.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 72c | 31.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 23.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 75c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.