Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd666e14f14befee473f58e786c5928bacc77d9934aaf699f239ca8f8406c99fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,933$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 697.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 639.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 6c | 508.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 475.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 268.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 253.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 22c | 252.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 18c | 234.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 234.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 24c | 226.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 195.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 23c | 182.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 15c | 173.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 23c | 85.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 23c | 73.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 14c | 73.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 70.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 60c | 67.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 24c | 60.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 22c | 57.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 33c | 54.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 80c | 51.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…bfbfbacked Yes | 24c | 42.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…eea1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 26.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 79c | 26.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.