Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9685b901fdbbf8c2bb1542238a781d535be1a3cb8ae8cf0da5f371d287685aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 2,889$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 54c | 892.45$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 792.56$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 633.24$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 597.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 556.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 56c | 502.51$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 392.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 374.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 364$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 347.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 17c | 307.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 51c | 291.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 56c | 278.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 273.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 269.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 48c | 260.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 45c | 259.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 245.71$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 239.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 62c | 176.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 162.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 47c | 137.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 114.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 111.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 60c | 111.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 52c | 109.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 54c | 105.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 48c | 105.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 22c | 99.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 95.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 39c | 91.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 40c | 91.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 61c | 81.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 79.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 75.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…6304backed No | 26c | 75.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 68.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 52c | 67.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 65.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 62.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 56c | 61.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 59.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 59.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 37c | 58.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 57.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 57.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 52c | 57.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 55.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 54.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 41c | 54.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 40c | 53.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 38c | 53.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 31c | 50.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 60c | 50.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 60c | 50.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 46.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 29c | 44.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 54c | 43.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 32c | 43.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 41.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 38c | 41.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb47…b8ebbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 49c | 39.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 54c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 35.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f007backed Yes | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 30.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 60c | 30.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 41c | 30.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 41c | 30.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 61c | 28.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 40c | 28.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 71c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 45c | 26.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 45c | 24.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.