Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1652a80c6484ae8d8266d2c2db39b2f82793bf3fdf8d9baea9791a48c6e15c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,933$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…76e3backed Yes | 1c | 3,988$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,563$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 188.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 157.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 151$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 139.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 131.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 70c | 129.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 122.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 114.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 19c | 108.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 18c | 101.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 100.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 95.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 90.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 90.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 85.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 23c | 85.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 72.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 64.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 59.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 27c | 58.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 56.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 55.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 53.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 51.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 22c | 48.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 47.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 80c | 47.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 44.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…5d6dbacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 78c | 39.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 34.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 31.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 29.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 25.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 22.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 79c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 19.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 77c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.