TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon WTA: Kayla Day vs Madison Keys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Madison Keysof Kayla Day, Madison Keys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Kayla Day21c13,455$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.888,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Madison Keys65c9,999$6,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,478.7434857.2%199 W · 149 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Kayla Day9c8,755$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Kayla Day31c7,840$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.0422939.3%90 W · 139 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Madison Keys66c7,755$5,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.9841251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Kayla Day7c7,504$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.3918315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Madison Keys62c7,500$4,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.647951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Kayla Day8c6,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013029.2%38 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Madison Keys77c5,643$4,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.318,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Kayla Day9c4,553$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.431,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kayla Day10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Kayla Day35c2,813$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.511,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked Kayla Day43c2,327$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021046.2%97 W · 113 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kayla Day31c2,166$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.0811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Madison Keys71c2,105$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.955,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Kayla Day7c2,085$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.961924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Kayla Day39c2,040$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.5652152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed Madison Keys73c2,000$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.7815457.1%88 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Kayla Day41c1,500$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.529654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Kayla Day10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Kayla Day43c1,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65060943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Kayla Day40c1,200$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.011,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Kayla Day10c1,199$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.938911.6%45 W · 344 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…4525backed Kayla Day23c1,180$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.346429.7%19 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x697a…a32cbacked Kayla Day35c1,127$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+52.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Kayla Day30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30027252.9%144 W · 128 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Kayla Day30c944.85$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.631,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Madison Keys78c921.94$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.254,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Madison Keys65c800$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2745457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134f…2b5dbacked Kayla Day35c789.5$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3517044.1%75 W · 95 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x411e…72f0backed Kayla Day10c749.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9815762.4%98 W · 59 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Kayla Day14c744$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1827732.5%90 W · 187 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Kayla Day27c711.58$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5543334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Madison Keys54c700$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.4813237.9%50 W · 82 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kayla Day39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Kayla Day10c681.84$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Madison Keys69c663.39$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2220865.9%137 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kayla Day27c661.29$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.916,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd43…7d3dbacked Kayla Day35c658.86$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307737.7%29 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Kayla Day23c645.42$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1628947.8%138 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c9…8803backed Kayla Day14c615.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4513743.1%59 W · 78 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kayla Day7c612.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.214,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Kayla Day34c574.6$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19729940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Madison Keys64c536.02$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.6521655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Madison Keys73c535.4$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.416,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kayla Day25c517$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3545737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Kayla Day37c500$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4647956.6%271 W · 208 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Kayla Day36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18089850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Kayla Day8c499.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4127132.1%87 W · 184 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Madison Keys65c494.63$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.7621257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Madison Keys73c475.28$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.113,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Madison Keys72c455.11$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.372,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Madison Keys78c436.68$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.791,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kayla Day29c378.88$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.581,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kayla Day23c373.56$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.242,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Kayla Day13c369.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.042,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd6…8577backed Kayla Day41c360$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5810943.1%47 W · 62 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Madison Keys73c345.5$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1780341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed Kayla Day9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054744.4%243 W · 304 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Madison Keys62c330$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.085,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Kayla Day30c328.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030625.8%79 W · 227 L-28.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Madison Keys66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10225051.2%128 W · 122 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Kayla Day33c299.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kayla Day35c281.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.081,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffe…a60fbacked Madison Keys77c263.79$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1716667.5%112 W · 54 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Madison Keys72c261.17$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.952,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b8…8712backed Madison Keys61c258.94$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2517257%98 W · 74 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Kayla Day21c258.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Madison Keys50c240$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.236954.2%200 W · 169 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe766…7843backed Kayla Day32c230.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.514643.5%20 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Madison Keys76c211.47$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.561,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Madison Keys71c211$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.194261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Madison Keys73c204.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2812949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Kayla Day10c200.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.012,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Kayla Day30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.248941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472c…5ae2backed Madison Keys71c199.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.64070%28 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Kayla Day18c197.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8837444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Kayla Day21c193.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.833,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Madison Keys78c192.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6784857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Kayla Day12c192$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.832,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Kayla Day42c188.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7920055%110 W · 90 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Kayla Day26c185.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5517818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Madison Keys47c170.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2240144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed0d…bc18backed Madison Keys71c169.56$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.567638.2%29 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93d…d7f6backed Madison Keys61c164.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Kayla Day26c161.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.621,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e66…bbd2backed Kayla Day31c160.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2511549.6%57 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Kayla Day25c157.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.119544.2%42 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Madison Keys69c150.76$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.484,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Madison Keys67c150.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.388935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d2…4a24backed Kayla Day9c148$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6852910%53 W · 476 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Kayla Day10c146.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.692,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37f1…19a0backed Madison Keys63c142.7$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7451736.9%191 W · 326 L-39.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Madison Keys57c141$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1580153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf23a…df6fbacked Madison Keys66c140$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.851252.1%267 W · 245 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…aa9fbacked Kayla Day8c131.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Madison Keys78c128.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.371,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Kayla Day30c127.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1922662.8%142 W · 84 L+15.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a6…6684backed Madison Keys77c123.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59564.2%61 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Madison Keys79c120.11$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.688,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.