TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,483,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,867,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,483,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,977 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed No73c300,289$218,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218,357.342,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No57c155,484$88,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,662.084,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No79c150,675$119,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,586.9929952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No44c140,345$61,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,963.131,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes21c126,033$25,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,048.8542345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No52c109,740$56,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,649.2374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Yes57c98,900$56,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,210.0822348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes20c79,180$15,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,291.233,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No48c75,182$35,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,849.3121738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Yes28c74,284$20,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,837.7414232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c68,510$25,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,567.018,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes49c62,443$30,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,059.0979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No44c57,423$25,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,472.238734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No79c53,006$41,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,942.6924441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked No80c50,800$40,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,64015456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9032…8717backed No80c50,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes26c47,702$12,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,181.2232031.6%101 W · 219 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No77c41,400$31,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,957.021,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed Yes37c36,644$13,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,980.114667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes21c32,534$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,701.777642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked No80c32,400$25,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,9204738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Yes21c30,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,8006749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No41c29,398$11,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,994.123,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…cf03backed Yes20c26,946$5,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,504.86048.3%29 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Yes78c26,227$20,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,865.062560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae97…3edcbacked Yes31c26,046$7,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,084.173253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes71c25,462$18,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,303.3118047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Yes20c24,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2005328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Yes20c22,500$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00014727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed Yes28c20,437$5,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,714.422045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ea…150fbacked Yes20c20,246$4,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,196.7219332.1%62 W · 131 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…66eabacked Yes20c20,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Yes28c20,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,4004355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No74c19,556$14,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,400.6831945.1%144 W · 175 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8f…8df8backed No51c16,987$8,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,658.9115746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes20c16,714$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,366.232,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes20c15,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0004129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed No79c14,999$11,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,849.547269.4%50 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4b…c2e4backed Yes67c14,917$10,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,874.556750.7%34 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Yes41c14,506$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,622.7966846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3da…7a7ebacked Yes21c14,328$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,318.771127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No61c14,259$8,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,642.3531945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes34c14,118$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,317.657550.7%38 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No6c14,010$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.6756541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f98…c81abacked Yes28c13,600$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7926134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes59c13,577$7,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,605.4721141.7%88 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7124…f0b5backed Yes21c13,532$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,734.822835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No79c12,598$9,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,953.471,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Yes20c12,500$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0009653.1%51 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes49c11,902$5,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,027.652,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes23c10,854$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,325.5826534%90 W · 175 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde29…89b1backed Yes19c10,501$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,506.051915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No59c10,390$6,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,151.2775335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Yes52c10,004$5,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.0338333.9%130 W · 253 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…7c05backed Yes24c9,415$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,155.234632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc807…8038backed Yes27c8,889$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,488.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x447f…a05ebacked Yes57c8,318$4,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.883562.9%22 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce80…9a82backed Yes28c8,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,759.993951.3%20 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+10.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes64c7,592$4,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.0836634.4%126 W · 240 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14eb…2e34backed Yes20c7,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00027433.9%93 W · 181 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Yes54c7,407$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.417753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Yes27c7,278$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,328.3317751.4%91 W · 86 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a44…8985backed Yes20c7,160$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7281631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+48.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2a…1fcabacked No80c6,804$5,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,443.278048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No58c6,771$3,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,956.1233337.8%126 W · 207 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…b06abacked Yes22c6,667$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.675320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x403a…376cbacked Yes23c6,558$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,058.441717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…650cbacked Yes58c6,452$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.6311133.3%37 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No53c6,228$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.022,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No63c6,223$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.2442043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No69c6,208$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,274.622,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2568…ef92backed No80c6,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80030751.1%157 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No80c6,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80050243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Yes40c5,948$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,548.2813036.2%47 W · 83 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d6e…213dbacked Yes20c5,855$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,684.324055%22 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No80c5,694$4,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,555.361,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4718…e2e8backed Yes20c5,555$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4444829.2%14 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2d…904cbacked Yes55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.555841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No79c5,356$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,256.652,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed No74c5,278$3,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.4384738.8%329 W · 518 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff1…4e4dbacked Yes54c5,137$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.184926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes34c5,104$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.0527239%106 W · 166 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec23…24fdbacked Yes57c5,044$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.12751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00032429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8df…656bbacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc087…dbbabacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0007541.3%31 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x635c…45c6backed Yes51c4,941$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,440.713554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff8…68ebbacked Yes20c4,887$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.9413237.1%49 W · 83 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No33c4,842$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.952,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424d…3b7ebacked Yes20c4,836$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.4411421.1%24 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Yes21c4,762$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.912428.2%35 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Yes21c4,762$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.916041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4068…a98ebacked Yes21c4,762$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.94641.3%19 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3f…6deebacked Yes21c4,760$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,760.43754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+44.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f8…a834backed Yes21c4,708$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,719.41717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…a351backed Yes25c4,678$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.4715127.8%42 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked No48c4,418$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.4718851.1%96 W · 92 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes46c4,348$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.8144539.6%176 W · 269 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…9b53backed Yes48c4,340$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.599034.4%31 W · 59 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No42c4,330$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.52,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.