Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990b854f174d623463b9430a66b4decb553075307fc4b929b9ed047eb60d71b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 16c | 1,952$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.83 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 24c | 1,570$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.83 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 738$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 714.56$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 55c | 676.54$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.92 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 622.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 609.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 602.39$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 18c | 444.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 416.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 385.78$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 373.85$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 40c | 372.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 350$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 11c | 334.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 331.97$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 16c | 304.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 27c | 295.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 291.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 32c | 290.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 275$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 265.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 23c | 264.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 251.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 251.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 246.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 246.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 245.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 14c | 197.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 21c | 197.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 27c | 194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 193$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 26c | 190.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 18c | 189.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 8c | 186.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 43c | 181.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 165.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 35c | 161.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 29c | 161.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 159.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 151.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 44c | 147.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 145.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 10c | 141.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 15c | 140.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 26c | 140.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 80c | 138.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 27c | 135$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 19c | 131.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 29c | 126.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 65c | 125.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 17c | 125.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 124.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 121.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…047cbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 118.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 64c | 114.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…6864backed Yes | 43c | 104.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 27c | 101.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 100.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 31c | 95.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 92.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 92.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 14c | 91.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 27c | 90.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…6465backed Yes | 15c | 88.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 36c | 87.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 84.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 77.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 46c | 75.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 31c | 75.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…eea1backed Yes | 26c | 75.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 26c | 74.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 73.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…740dbacked Yes | 16c | 72.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 37c | 70.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 71c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 73c | 67.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 67.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 27c | 67.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 67.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 24c | 66.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 27c | 65.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 65.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.