Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a67b7309a4cb12f429741a4e7337779b2ce946a62014596459b1656edad827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 3,080$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 1,073$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 1,033$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 735.4$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 27c | 689.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 599.14$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 530.1$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 45c | 500.04$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 415.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 410.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 400.19$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 365.67$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 347.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 19c | 334.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 299.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 296.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 296$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.87 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 22c | 280.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 24c | 278.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 70c | 262.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 257.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 256$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 79c | 241$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 238.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 8c | 236$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 28c | 235.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 223$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 219.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 193.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 188.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 52c | 186$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 181.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 6c | 180$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.81 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 11c | 178$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 177.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 168.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 167.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 161.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 33c | 153.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 29c | 142.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 136.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 135.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 128.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 42c | 125.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 31c | 119.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 117$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 69c | 105.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 105.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…fafbbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 93.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 93.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 92.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 92.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 84.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 70c | 83.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 80.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…6864backed Yes | 38c | 78.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 70c | 78.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 76.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 40c | 74.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 21c | 73.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 26c | 71.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 70.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 70.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 69.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 67.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 77c | 66.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 59.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 57.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 28c | 56.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 53c | 55.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 65c | 53.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 69c | 53.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 52.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 58c | 52.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 52.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…4172backed No | 73c | 50.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 30c | 50.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.