Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce485656355cf833dc8ea702cda32d347999b1bd4c395e0f3c33d698696336fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 41c | 1,026$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.31 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 829.07$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 735.4$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 700.42$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 684.79$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 676.68$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 35c | 600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.45 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 584.37$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 552.38$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 57c | 453.48$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 46c | 436.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 363.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 360.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 77c | 358.12$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 344.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 328.11$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 51c | 309.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.45 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 46c | 289.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 282.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 39c | 259.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 245$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 76c | 241.4$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 227.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 225.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 52c | 213.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…6864backed Yes | 53c | 211.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 204.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 204.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 51c | 202.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…fafbbacked Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 198.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 195.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 30c | 191.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 188.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 187.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 44c | 183.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7949…67c5backed Yes | 45c | 176.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 55c | 173.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 48c | 170.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 169$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 43c | 163.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 31c | 161.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 38c | 161.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 44c | 152.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 146.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 143.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 57c | 141.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…24f0backed Yes | 35c | 141.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 138.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 46c | 134.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 53c | 125$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 123.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 123.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 50c | 121.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 116.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 50c | 111.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 46c | 108.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 107.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 60c | 107.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 53c | 107.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 57c | 105.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 49c | 104.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 101.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 49c | 100.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 56c | 100.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 53c | 98.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 51c | 97.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 51c | 96.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 57c | 96.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 91.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 91.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 51c | 90.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…ac86backed No | 64c | 89.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 59c | 87.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 38c | 86.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed No | 71c | 86.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 86.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 81.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 29c | 79.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 78.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 75.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 42c | 75.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 72.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 35c | 72.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 57c | 71.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 69.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.