Commodities · resolved market
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5675bc58c8117391cc243780c1b709ce1ef744aa27779c78ee82f3dc974ca1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,123,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,229,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,123,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 629 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 6c | 119,066$7,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,615.55 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 23c | 50,000$11,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,499.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 13c | 13,557$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.16 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 76c | 13,540$10,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 19c | 12,900$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 12,361$9,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 46c | 10,506$4,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,871.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 7c | 10,483$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.41 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.26 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…6162backed Yes | 11c | 9,194$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…f9b1backed Yes | 3c | 9,082$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 40c | 8,866$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 23c | 7,745$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 68c | 7,197$4,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 6,946$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.57 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 77c | 6,890$5,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.71 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 12c | 6,494$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 12c | 6,212$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 11c | 5,697$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 5,399$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 29c | 5,191$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,147$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 10c | 5,141$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 80c | 5,040$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 22c | 4,857$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 80c | 4,826$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 66c | 4,735$3,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…e20dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,580$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 37c | 4,555$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,345$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,211$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 7c | 4,186$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 38c | 4,159$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 73c | 4,101$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 65c | 4,088$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 67c | 4,083$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…cf37backed Yes | 7c | 4,067$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 3,977$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 16c | 3,587$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,479$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…c3babacked Yes | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 34c | 3,257$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 64c | 2,946$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 2,916$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.22 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…2fb5backed Yes | 40c | 2,847$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…f883backed Yes | 30c | 2,703$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,684$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…8cd3backed Yes | 42c | 2,660$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,630$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.43 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 21c | 2,524$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 9c | 2,459$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 8c | 2,424$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 79c | 2,300$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed Yes | 1c | 2,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 9c | 2,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 15c | 2,239$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 8c | 2,162$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 15c | 2,161$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 11c | 2,140$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…8020backed Yes | 15c | 2,048$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…5087backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,940$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…b95ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,936$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 16c | 1,921$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 9c | 1,913$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 1,895$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 7c | 1,893$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,832$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,752$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,711$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…8fd0backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…f01fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,582$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…6841backed Yes | 8c | 1,558$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 77c | 1,525$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 21c | 1,409$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 2c | 1,387$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,354$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 37c | 1,342$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 60c | 1,302$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…8179backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed Yes | 41c | 1,230$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 50c | 1,202$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 54c | 1,200$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?this page
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?No won
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.