TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$632,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$753,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd63…050fbacked MOUZ70c20,700$14,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,589.973050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FUT Esports33c18,888$6,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,654.954650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed MOUZ67c18,784$12,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,585.0625355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89a6…429abacked MOUZ56c18,234$10,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,165.991861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd052…7ab9backed FUT Esports29c11,367$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,075.571369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MOUZ11c10,323$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.5322129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed FUT Esports39c9,473$3,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,778.238670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FUT Esports42c6,991$2,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,054.7817643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…2e18backed MOUZ56c6,976$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,906.561020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-56.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ32c6,245$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.351,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports65c6,090$3,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.841,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ55c5,820$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.132348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports67c5,672$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.611,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports70c5,245$3,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.3587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports39c5,058$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.0713548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0385…acafbacked FUT Esports26c5,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.991346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports55c4,949$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.921,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports42c4,846$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.445,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked MOUZ52c4,828$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.013426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked MOUZ37c4,308$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.5675245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed FUT Esports29c4,177$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.8418837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ58c3,632$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.31,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa417…9f8cbacked FUT Esports41c3,538$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.151030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x322e…ef2cbacked MOUZ56c3,525$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9741442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed MOUZ29c3,500$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0307844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebc…063ebacked MOUZ10c3,450$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FUT Esports66c3,381$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.4352837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ44c3,188$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.511,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ40c3,152$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.0988746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x136b…c35abacked MOUZ41c3,136$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FUT Esports42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74028843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed MOUZ40c2,967$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.3511742.7%50 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed MOUZ76c2,912$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.3735344.8%158 W · 195 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed FUT Esports33c2,683$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.8836645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ20c2,629$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.452,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FUT Esports63c2,611$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.6338868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FUT Esports66c2,427$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.4840253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked MOUZ67c2,218$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.119565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked FUT Esports50c2,200$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.6439970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed MOUZ56c2,193$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.0712749.6%63 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ50c2,187$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed MOUZ80c2,164$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.1130153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed MOUZ56c2,158$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.3327961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x521f…3344backed MOUZ25c2,136$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5406347.6%30 W · 33 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed MOUZ13c2,086$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed MOUZ55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9911740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed MOUZ32c1,999$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.864250%21 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ59c1,974$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.472,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffca…b04cbacked MOUZ62c1,910$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FUT Esports45c1,854$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.062,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed FUT Esports58c1,794$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.7717759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed MOUZ45c1,724$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.544553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed FUT Esports40c1,700$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02010739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked MOUZ58c1,700$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.73938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ48c1,699$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.162,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FUT Esports41c1,621$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.8449536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed MOUZ64c1,605$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.6354732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FUT Esports60c1,574$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.431,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked FUT Esports37c1,500$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.372665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04da…86b1backed MOUZ12c1,478$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports55c1,362$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.892,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed MOUZ35c1,359$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.665546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FUT Esports45c1,319$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.4381751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked MOUZ51c1,310$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66820041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ44c1,300$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.651,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed FUT Esports74c1,297$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.512373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked MOUZ38c1,258$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4934542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked FUT Esports33c1,254$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.2716142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed FUT Esports41c1,250$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.522342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc236…e3d3backed FUT Esports39c1,238$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.383554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MOUZ17c1,232$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.24,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ57c1,200$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.0117737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed MOUZ62c1,048$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked FUT Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45015251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed MOUZ59c943.83$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.863745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f0…b287backed FUT Esports31c933$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked MOUZ54c901.82$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0316946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed FUT Esports30c890$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62319840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed MOUZ28c881.17$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.77642.1%32 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed MOUZ13c862.32$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.138937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed FUT Esports38c850.1$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.622744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked FUT Esports41c850$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.511546.1%53 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked MOUZ50c833.9$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.3175245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked MOUZ19c827.08$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.87834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed MOUZ5c823$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.153438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FUT Esports42c805.95$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.4510143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked MOUZ62c805.55$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023858.4%139 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed MOUZ67c746.42$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015962.9%100 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked MOUZ46c736.07$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34014544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed MOUZ74c721.98$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4118943.9%83 W · 106 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ51c706.22$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.337646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FUT Esports45c694.98$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.5110036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked MOUZ56c685.37$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.813641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed MOUZ64c681.88$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.4810753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed FUT Esports51c679.7$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.75048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked MOUZ74c675.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked MOUZ44c675$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30043237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked MOUZ75c666.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.