CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9805ab82983477022c10af73c7a7e9c13939a51d1cfd07a7811e0606d1b8521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FUT Esportsof MOUZ, FUT Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 759 | 45.3%344 W · 415 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed MOUZ | 50c | 852$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…2a03backed FUT Esports | 35c | 501.92$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MOUZ | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 4,132 | 50.9%2,104 W · 2,028 L | +72.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8,058 | 50.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L | +171.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed MOUZ | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 43.3%365 W · 478 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked FUT Esports | 62c | 196.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,549 | 51.3%795 W · 754 L | -11.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 5,137 | 55%2,826 W · 2,311 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed FUT Esports | 62c | 134.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 560 | 48.6%272 W · 288 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…195cbacked MOUZ | 38c | 134.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed MOUZ | 37c | 64.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…b263backed MOUZ | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed MOUZ | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a0f3backed MOUZ | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked MOUZ | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 233 | 56.7%132 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked FUT Esports | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)FUT Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.