TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$471,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed MOUZ38c98,335$37,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,328.113548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FUT Esports79c45,073$35,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,604.741,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd052…7ab9backed MOUZ19c36,527$6,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,837.591369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports49c22,182$10,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,345.0275350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed MOUZ26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60012118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed FUT Esports48c9,895$4,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,145.183666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked MOUZ50c9,871$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,935.5419757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MOUZ30c7,777$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.0922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed FUT Esports50c5,186$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.516560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked FUT Esports48c4,974$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.429046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports68c4,932$3,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.841,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked FUT Esports51c4,831$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.0611146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FUT Esports50c4,710$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.5248548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports71c4,382$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.311,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed FUT Esports48c4,335$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.188246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports70c4,010$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.591,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ55c3,954$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.911,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports48c3,762$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.472,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FUT Esports49c3,704$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.9264852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FUT Esports49c3,700$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.034650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports73c3,513$2,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.21,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed FUT Esports50c3,307$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.6710739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed MOUZ29c3,132$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.3219468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa4f0…b287backed MOUZ26c3,124$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked FUT Esports49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53011650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed MOUZ50c3,000$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49037145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ32c2,983$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96018837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked MOUZ54c2,730$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.41,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed MOUZ52c2,691$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.567645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FUT Esports79c2,647$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.191,01753.4%543 W · 474 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports71c2,630$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.9687047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed MOUZ19c2,621$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.382,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked MOUZ11c2,400$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2746237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FUT Esports72c2,399$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.8240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed FUT Esports49c2,385$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.356934.8%24 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed MOUZ55c2,248$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.446143.4%200 W · 261 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed MOUZ45c2,202$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.987548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed FUT Esports50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed FUT Esports60c2,107$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.312373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed FUT Esports63c2,085$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.5345646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed FUT Esports50c2,003$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.58452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked MOUZ49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.995451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed MOUZ26c1,960$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FUT Esports73c1,861$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.521,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports60c1,828$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.245,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed FUT Esports59c1,800$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.5511740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…1ad4backed MOUZ6c1,762$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.653327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed MOUZ27c1,748$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48026624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed MOUZ24c1,580$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1654732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FUT Esports66c1,550$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.3272153.7%387 W · 334 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed MOUZ56c1,481$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.3114950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7d…df55backed FUT Esports44c1,466$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked MOUZ52c1,442$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7508741.4%36 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ28c1,420$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.617737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FUT Esports49c1,376$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.625651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc236…e3d3backed FUT Esports54c1,357$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.053554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked MOUZ47c1,305$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61014544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked MOUZ18c1,294$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.927838.1%106 W · 172 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ32c1,261$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed MOUZ1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56521.5%14 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked MOUZ33c1,242$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.723839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed MOUZ52c1,219$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.8846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed FUT Esports49c1,213$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.54250%21 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FUT Esports48c1,212$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.4696740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed MOUZ47c1,210$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.698752.9%46 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports63c1,100$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.323,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed FUT Esports49c1,092$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.841,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed FUT Esports55c1,075$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.3627961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb8…a470backed FUT Esports65c1,071$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.843935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc865…2f6ebacked FUT Esports49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.25425.9%14 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed FUT Esports49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5107844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed FUT Esports76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2409540%38 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed FUT Esports48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52050846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports50c999.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed FUT Esports49c999.71$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.7718844.1%83 W · 105 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab1b…99e1backed FUT Esports51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…d69bbacked MOUZ54c972.71$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked FUT Esports50c961.64$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.8235341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed MOUZ31c926.56$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5615150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed MOUZ53c922.02$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8821346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FUT Esports70c916.6$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.243,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MOUZ31c913.61$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.584,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed FUT Esports41c900$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53112234.4%42 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked FUT Esports68c882.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.352161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked FUT Esports68c882.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.355261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed FUT Esports44c876$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.5665346.9%306 W · 347 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed FUT Esports49c862.23$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.744553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed MOUZ57c811.42$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.5127045.9%124 W · 146 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked FUT Esports54c810.26$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.2616142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked FUT Esports51c762.21$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.2127041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a1…bf30backed MOUZ39c761.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FUT Esports51c670.93$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.575,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked FUT Esports75c670.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.0817967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed FUT Esports48c659$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6843055.1%237 W · 193 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked FUT Esports67c638.93$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.172644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FUT Esports60c605.99$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.112,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa3…ff46backed FUT Esports50c603.72$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.863315.2%5 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-65.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x083f…5c9cbacked FUT Esports50c599.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.652441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked FUT Esports49c588.76$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.2711564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.