Middle East · resolved market
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e747c730884ac022f1f43018bb9be367b5dc1a9529b22dcd56f1e33d74a6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 23c | 4,364$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.24 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 22c | 1,233$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 955.89$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.71 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 50c | 691.44$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.98 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 77c | 569$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 54c | 555.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 79c | 543.89$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 44c | 541.67$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.6 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 450.82$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 6c | 450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…d705backed No | 23c | 441.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 422$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.86 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 8c | 416.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 60c | 414.1$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4545…4f61backed No | 24c | 370.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +311.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 360.2$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 40c | 349.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 77c | 314.46$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 23c | 276$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 29c | 271.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 75c | 255.6$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 58c | 255.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 30c | 241.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 31c | 234.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 56c | 212.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 77c | 207$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 47c | 205.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed No | 11c | 203$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 199.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 17c | 197.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 10c | 187.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…b293backed Yes | 13c | 186.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…c914backed Yes | 13c | 172.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…6540backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…9084backed Yes | 13c | 147.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes | 68c | 135.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed No | 11c | 125$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 19c | 102.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked No | 39c | 100.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 45c | 89.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 88.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 15c | 87.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 79.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 75.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 71.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 53c | 68.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 67c | 62.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 61.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed Yes | 58c | 59.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 55.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 25c | 54.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 20c | 53.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…55cebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 77c | 47.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 43.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…c56cbacked No | 24c | 41.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…1489backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e4…5c51backed Yes | 54c | 35.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 75c | 29.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 38c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 57c | 21.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…524abacked Yes | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…30debacked No | 78c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20?this page
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 22,000 by March 20?No won
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 24,000 by March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.