Middle East · resolved market
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 22,000 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53dcff2ab1dec1115445257e9914cc16e9b2371f9178d2118ddae348fcd1481f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,489 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 6c | 11,000$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 10,453$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 21c | 2,179$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 21c | 1,105$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 79c | 843$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 79c | 749$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 79c | 747$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.87 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 79c | 683$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 559.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 8c | 519.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 517.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 13c | 333.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 11c | 283.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 79c | 262$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 10c | 260.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 159.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 12c | 126.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf951…8edebacked Yes | 10c | 108.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed Yes | 13c | 100.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…ca80backed Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f5…45dbbacked Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e4a5backed No | 79c | 71.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 80c | 51.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 22,000 by March 20?this page
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20?No won
- Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 24,000 by March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.