TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$406,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,298 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes45c132,545$59,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,899.626358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No55c25,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7502948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No28c21,647$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,094.873,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0005440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No55c20,000$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,899.9916652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Yes46c10,901$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,901.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No8c9,973$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.4748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed No56c8,920$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,020850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4006549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No54c7,217$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.061,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No55c7,201$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e85…9b0bbacked No38c6,994$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3005843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed No55c5,613$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.363836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No54c4,984$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.8769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed No3c4,913$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.23933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed No55c4,865$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No55c4,829$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.951540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes51c4,275$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.7510641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No15c4,089$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.0440744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.975952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked No1c3,903$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.171729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed No52c3,821$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9873046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked No55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No49c3,524$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.5248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9256744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Yes44c3,409$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.098448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes44c3,300$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No15c3,124$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6505944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6803525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6209048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed No55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.883073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89ec…ed41backed No55c2,942$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No55c2,940$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No22c2,921$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.7664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No13c2,693$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.831,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No55c2,685$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.9420845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35015747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Yes44c2,476$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.68580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed No12c2,400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2886844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No56c2,222$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.2114447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes50c1,843$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.89646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fcf…80acbacked Yes46c1,739$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No55c1,735$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.345959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f0…b809backed No53c1,631$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.461942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes46c1,546$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.327538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+83.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No49c1,476$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.977750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x171c…f0a0backed Yes70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No55c1,300$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7156647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No55c1,300$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7155349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.965538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No4c1,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0414315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Yes69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No55c955$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.259459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No55c900$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4955745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked No55c888$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.44337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4406446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No13c795.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.716227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…9b71backed Yes80c700.26$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No54c678.85$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.527138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Yes47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.36428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes45c622.22$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes44c607.97$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.462352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed No8c598.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.242138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed No53c597.61$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.853268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No36c580.58$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.116232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Yes70c565.71$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed No31c516.58$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601225%3 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf0…df85backed No50c504$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes46c500$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27210251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2758950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2758949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2757050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2755646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No55c494.92$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.0342046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Yes45c493.33$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.332751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No23c492.25$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No55c460$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No55c450$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.55944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.441747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Yes44c442.43$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7617852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes45c424.7$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No56c410$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.624050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes44c402$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1224322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2049252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c391.24$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2711447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked No54c380$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.211252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Yes44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.911650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9283…ba85backed Yes50c338$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.