TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d63…2e49backed No76c12,705$9,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.192665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes21c11,137$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.643,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed No77c8,641$6,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.43966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes25c6,090$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes23c4,996$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.0469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No75c2,550$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.61,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes18c2,332$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.5564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x894e…c9d5backed Yes2c2,208$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Yes24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003941%16 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c2,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.995151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes10c1,990$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19924132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f4…d132backed Yes3c1,977$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Yes24c1,025$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f84…be62backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No76c986$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.6438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes23c923.23$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2106940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4813…988fbacked No78c864.12$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7065…5292backed Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x287a…02d2backed No76c821.82$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.242369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No76c677.34$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf09…e85abacked Yes2c666.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01c…7f6cbacked No76c537$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes24c505$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Yes9c501.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.185131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Yes24c483.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1163429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-44.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No76c479.99$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Yes23c466.79$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.368448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed No77c428.93$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes25c420.5$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5811447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes23c399.96$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9911539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437f…38f0backed Yes24c348.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes25c285.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Yes19c274$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.42326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes24c270.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d3…3128backed Yes24c251.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes24c226.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.289252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83e1…ee29backed No77c220.78$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.78475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357b…eb2abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+81.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No76c193.86$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3842046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes24c187.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f0…0114backed Yes19c186.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4846…ba76backed No77c168.83$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x844d…780bbacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No76c158$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9215747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked No76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No76c149.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a58…1497backed Yes19c149.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Yes9c146.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.232231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No80c139.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.727554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes24c122.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.247538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed No76c119.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.816343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No76c118.83$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes24c114.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5121355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202528%7 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5f…446bbacked Yes24c108.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes22c106.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2411956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x202b…e209backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick27cpaid+99.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8006…94dcbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Yes11c99.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes25c89.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e1…7b41backed Yes25c84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No77c80.56$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.532060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a9…565cbacked Yes24c80.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No75c77.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.156951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes22c69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…b24abacked Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Yes24c62.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.899248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes24c59.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.287959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dad…7656backed No76c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes18c55.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed No76c50.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1912056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Yes24c50.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.136946.4%32 W · 37 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a16…5f47backed No76c50.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126055%33 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d19…a694backed Yes24c48.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked Yes24c42.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No77c40.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.254057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.93557.1%20 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f4…b9debacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7527138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf47…6c2ebacked No78c32.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked No78c27.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…6c94backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick75cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No76c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8415160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.