Music · resolved market
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf8e216101badb5a89ac72cfc16b417ee0bd626cf297bafaecb2d15ae92624b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x056d…1f4ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,623$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d62cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,604$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…c914backed Yes | 2c | 2,399$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…1f85backed Yes | 21c | 1,919$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…0ee8backed Yes | 1c | 1,677$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…5234backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…a1a1backed Yes | 19c | 1,358$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,138$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 999$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc25…6c18backed Yes | 7c | 877.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…dadfbacked Yes | 7c | 810.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 6c | 783.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…523bbacked Yes | 4c | 681.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…5a07backed Yes | 6c | 475.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 447.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 3c | 443.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 340.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 4c | 314.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…17d3backed Yes | 7c | 280.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8122…cfebbacked Yes | 8c | 266.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +414.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 71.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes won
- Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.