Music · resolved market
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84074f56c9ff302f8f9d8f1ee28cad9b22d9d5b32f012542da97a8cae3760112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7fe…e3d4backed No | 1c | 1,348$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,024$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.45 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 26c | 968$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 4c | 825.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 74c | 691$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 685.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 626.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 588.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 4c | 553.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 543.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 533.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 4c | 485.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 4c | 422.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 4c | 398.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed No | 4c | 388.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 8c | 378.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 369.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 355.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed No | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 74c | 277$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 245.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…4348backed No | 10c | 197.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 28c | 163.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…4a72backed No | 10c | 158.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…58dbbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 10c | 104.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.