South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2109d65fad35e9780cf8e0dd4fcee301c255878907cdd6a08a3e89433b4de6b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,772$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,060$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 736.27$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.3 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 597.02$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 14c | 535.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…c914backed Yes | 50c | 534.86$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544f…3ca1backed Yes | 28c | 357.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 12c | 356.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…c58dbacked Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 15c | 255.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 223.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 58c | 199.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 193$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…3713backed Yes | 44c | 183.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked Yes | 8c | 156.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 15c | 151.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…78adbacked No | 76c | 150.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 21c | 144.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Yes | 13c | 139.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 14c | 129.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 14c | 127.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 62c | 123$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Yes | 14c | 108.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 74c | 87.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 85.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 75c | 71.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Yes | 25c | 70.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Yes | 26c | 60.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 49.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 74c | 47.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 32.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 51c | 32.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…066cbacked No | 63c | 31.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…9bf6backed Yes | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 77c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-07?this page
- Will CA Platense vs. CA Peñarol end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.